ALL QUIET ON THE ITALIAN FRONT

Article published by "Open Democracy" in June, 2013

To the inexperienced eye, all appearances would seem to indicate that the Italian political scene – normally rather colourful and volatile – has quieted down  to a considerable extent, to the point of having become rather humdrum and devoid of  general interest.  Extremely significant municipal elections have been held in many  cities (including Rome), both on the continent and in Sicily, with no major surprises and  in an atmosphere of  good-humoured tranquillity. The conclusion, therefore, would seem to indicate that all is quiet on the Italian political front (a circumstance, in itself, likely to arouse suspicion and apprehension), but the reality is, instead  really  quite different. This extremely odd  “grand coalition” government,  even  more incongruous than its  “technical” predecessor, emerges  greatly weakened  and condemned to  impotence, as, indeed,  it has already shown, having emerged as  one of the most unproductive governments in recent Italian history. Paradoxically, its survival, at least over the next few months, appears guaranteed, but only  by   the understandable fear, by both of the leading parties, of facing  an increasingly angry and unpredictable electorate in case of early elections. Even a superficial analysis of the vote, held over the past two weeks, and still  having to be concluded in Sicily, indisputably shows that again, just as in the case of February’s national elections,  there have been no winners, but only losers, this time including  the maverick “5 Stars movement” founded and led by former comedian Beppe Grillo.

Four key factors have emerged from  these  local elections.

Firstly the ever increasing rate of abstentions. In a country where, even a couple of decades ago, a 90% electoral turnout was considered normal,  the percentage of voters has dropped to just over 50%,  and  the  non voters thus  form a considerable  political force. There are mixed reactions to this phenomenon. The prevailing feeling is that  the exceptional rate of abstention, and, above all,  its vertiginously  rapid  increase,  denotes  a growing sense of disillusionment and anger on the part of the electorate, and that  this widespread feeling could  play into the hands of any new  populist  movement, especially if  “right-wing”, anti European and hostile to immigrant labour. More optimistic, or at least cautious,  observers, however,  seem to  believe that this is a normal  trend which brings Italy closer to older established democracies,  the examples of France, the United Kingdom and the United States are usually cited, in which the rate of   abstention is normally just as high, even higher,  with no  doubts being expressed on the legitimacy of the emerging governments. This optimistic, or more positive assessment, however,  fails to take into account a fundamental aspect of political life in Italy, as compared to the other    countries indicated as examples. The Italian electorate’s role in the democratic process  has always been limited to the vote,  after which things tend to be  “left to the politicians” until the  next  electoral appointment, with no significant participation to the political  process at the grass-roots level. This is what, in the prevailing view, makes “turn-out” such a vital issue in Italy..

The second element to emerge – but which has to be taken with a great deal of caution – has been the virtual collapse of the maverick “Five Stars” movement led by former comedian Beppe Grillo. Triumphant at the outcome of  its first ever national electoral test last February, the “Movement” emerged as Italy’s strongest single political party, thus creating a  virtually unmanageable three-way tie with the  left wing Democratic Party and Mr. Berlusconi's “People of Liberty”, basically the  greatest loser in the process.

Also the further  weakening of  Berlusconi’s party has to be taken into account,  mainly  because, paradoxically, in spite of its miserable showing last February, it still is an influential participant in the “grand coalition” and, for the time being, seems  to be in a position to call many of the  shots, through a masterful use of the constant threat of causing  paralysis by  refusing to play the game, as temperamental  children threaten to do  on the play-ground.. As a perhaps marginal, but not insignificant corollary, it has to be noted that Berlusconi’s traditional ally, the “Northern League”, torn by vicious internal rifts and fighting,  has lost  key positions and major cities in an area which has always been considered its home ground (i.e. the North and the North East).

“If Athens cries, even Sparta can’t laugh” was the saying that emerged at the end of the  Peloponnesian conflict (Fourth Century BC), and it is  much quoted in Italy these days in order to illustrate the paucity of the Democratic Party’s victory. The paradoxes, which abound in the sometimes indecipherable Italian political context,  are confirmed by the fact that  the  leading political party, victorious in February’s general elections,  which has just made a record-breaking clean  sweep of all the municipal elections,  winning them all and leaving none to the opposition, in reality has emerged weakened, and not strengthened by the experience. And this ongoing, apparently incurable weakness in Italy’s centre-left  “Democratic Party” is the fourth of the above quoted factors  to be taken into account.

The  deeper reasons behind the exceptional rate of abstention will have to be examined with care and competence in the near future, when it will be possible to   break the numbers down into age,  professional and other groupings: a superficial view, as yet unconfirmed,   seems to indicate that  it affects the younger electorate in greater numbers.

It is difficult to  foresee what the future holds in store for Grillo’s movement, but there are signs of a growing disaffection not only in the electorate, but also within the movement itself, due  to Grillo’s excessively dictatorial stance, to some very obvious tactical and strategic mistakes   made   at a moment in which the movement was  on the crest of the wave, as well as to the  confusion which seems to reign over the movement’s official position on many key issues.  The fact is that, politically speaking,  the entire movement, from Grillo down, is basically  made up by political amateurs who proved to be no match against their much more seasoned peers  in the traditional parties.  There is time for   regrouping and recovery, but  at the moment the trend  appears rather negative,

Berlusconi’s party,  a bit like Grillo’s, suffers from the fact that it is essentially a one-man show, and the “Cavaliere”, as he is known,  has never really attempted to groom  younger party members in the art of political leadership. In fact, he always appeared to be rather suspicious of  political allies who threatened to be seen as “charismatic”, and has systematically and ruthlessly eliminated them. The crisis within the party is very deep, and Berlusconi’s advancing age (he is 77) and his  judicial  problems which might end up making him  legally ineligible to run for office are all elements which add to the visible discomfort of Italy’s centre-right.

By contrast, the Democratic Party suffers from a lack of leadership and  of internal cohesion. A Party Congress will be held in the Fall, but  the danger of a split is  ever present, and would certainly further complicate  the situation.

The present government, holder of a massive parliamentary majority, has not achieved much in these first weeks of existence and arouses  almost no   confidence  in the  Italian public opinion. Grounds for optimism have always been tenuous, and are now  very quickly disappearing.