ITALY'S DOOMED QUEST FOR STABILITY

(This article was published by "Open Democracy" in May 2013)

Rome, Italy, May 6 2013

Italy’s brave attempt at  forming a new Government  has been facing severe and growing difficulties from the very beginning. The effort is haunted, above all,  by two separate  problems each of which could   bring about the Government’s early downfall. There are  two “ghosts” at the banquet  who appear  determined and capable of  ruining the festivities. On the one hand,  the event appears dominated by a particularly burdensome and unwelcome  “Convitato di Pietra”  (The “stone guest” at Don Juan’s dinner table) in the form of  Beppe Grillo’s  powerful “Five Stars Movement”, while, on the other hand it is easy to spot an even more  insidious and dangerous threat, posed by the  internal instability which has brought about a very improbable mixture of personalities and ideologies. The resulting political compromise could  well turn out to be   destined to exhaust its energies, weak as they are, in the struggle for survival.

If, therefore. to all appearances, especially judging by the prevailing   international media reports,  Italians should be basking in the prospect of a newly found political stability, a more realistic  vision  would  suggest a very different picture. True, a Government  has been formed and granted a massive vote of confidence by both Houses of Parliament, and it is led by the youngest  Prime Minister in the Republic’s history. The calumet of peace is apparently being shared  among  previously warring factions,  some very respected technical figures have been placed at the head of  key economic ministries and the  Government has the largest female presence in the history of the country. The euphoria – albeit cautious – exhibited by  the Markets and by some of the leading  international media does not appear shared, however, by public opinion in Italy, ready, perhaps,  to  acknowledge the brave effort undertaken by Prime Minister Enrico Letta, but aware that this brilliant spectacle is marred by the presence of what  could be best described as the shadow of disaster, a veritable Phantom of the Opera, lurking  in the beautiful, historic houses of Parliament, ready to profit from any sign of failure or even weakness.

The term “Convitato di Pietra”  refers to  the cumbersome presence of a dinner guest such as the “Commendatore’s” statute in the various versions of “Don Juan” - I particularly refer to Mozart’s “Don Giovanni”. In this case,  the  extremely uncomfortable presence of the largest  political party to emerge from last February's election, Beppe Grillo’s “Five Stars Movement”, incongruously, and some would say undemocratically, relegated to the role of opposition, is certainly  unwelcome, uncomfortable and potentially fatal, even though it does not, by itself, represent the greatest danger to the Government's stability. This danger – and it is  a constant and pressing issue – is found within the  Government alliance itself which is quite likely to fall apart at any moment,  perhaps mainly to the benefit of Grillo’s movement.

The experiment of a “Grand Coalition”, more or less on the German model (the first such attempt in Italy since 1947), has been  much talked about and described as  the only possible solution to the political impasse resulting from last February’s elections.  Some  basic  historic  misinterpretations have, however, been  brought into play, either wilfully or through  a superficial grasp of history. The post-war instance of coalition –  between the Christian Democrats and the Communists – has been much quoted as an example of working together in times of crisis, and, indeed, Italy's democratic republican Constitution owes its existence to  that  moment of joint endeavour. The situation, however, was totally different then, and the two sides were adversaries but not enemies: indeed. Many of them had struggled, even fought,  on the same side against Fascism, and, of course, the “opposition” – i.e. the Fascists – were seen as a defeated enemy and not  part of any political set-up or alliance. Historical parallels  are tempting to draw, but they can  be dangerously deceptive.

The Letta Government therefore,   newly born as it is, already shows  serious structural faults, and these  initial, apparently minor cracks in the show of unity appear bound to widen into irremediable  rifts.

The fact is that the apparent  unity, as  well as the vast majority obtained in the initial votes of confidence, are primarily based not so much on the desire to give the country   a much needed leadership as, instead, on  the evident fear, shared by  the three leading coalitions (Former Prime Minister Monti’s centrist coalition has to be added to the  two principal players), of having to face the electorate again, as would be inevitable  if either Berlusconi’s centre-right or the beleaguered,  perhaps  hopelessly weakened centre left led by the Democratic Party, should  find it impossible to continue in what is basically a charade of political  cooperation.

The most dangerous paradox to emerge from the situation is that the Democratic Party finds itself to be heading a Government bent on fulfilling many of Mr. Berlusconi’s campaign promises and almost none of those  which gave the Democratic  Party itself victory – fragile though it was – in the polls. The paradox can be labelled “dangerous” because  the Democratic  Party’s electorate    has already been showing signs of disquiet,   and could well provoke a  definite internal split , separating the two main currents which were never quite able to coexist comfortably,  the  “Catholic” faction against the more left-wing bloc which includes many former Communists.

All this is further complicated by the sidelined but vociferous presence of Beppe Grillo’s “Five Stars Movement” – which could well end up reaping the advantages of having  kept clear of the  dubious, presumably unsavoury intrigues which have  led to the formation of this  uncertain  coalition. At the moment Grillo actually serves a useful purpose, and his presence and popularity are used, with the almost unanimous support of the media, as a means to persuade sceptics, both at home and abroad, that this government  constitutes the only  means to prevent Italy’s sliding into a “populist nightmare”. To this effect Grillo’s movement is continually   being paraded as an Italian equivalent of UKIP, or of Golden Dawn or other far right populist movements in Europe, but the comparison is  unjustified and completely misleading.

The  prevailing sentiment of fear within the  members of  the coalition is certainly justified by the latest opinion polls. Should elections be held in the very near future, it appears that the Centre Right (i.e. Berlusconi) would come out on top, but with  a limited majority  which would  make it impossible for it to form a Government, while  Grillo’s “Movimento”, although perhaps losing a few votes, would still emerge as the largest single political party, The   current Democratic Coalition, narrowly victorious in the last elections, would be the  biggest losers, relegated to third place: in other words, a dramatic repetition of the current situation with a reversal of the roles played by its most important components, and, as an additional  negative  prospect, a further growth in the number of abstentions

It is, therefore, fear, and  only fear which keeps the coalition going, and  a Democracy in which the governing parties live and act  in fear of the electorate does show  preoccupying signs of  fragility.

It is to be expected, therefore, that even should the present formula survive,  all its energies will be concentrated on keeping  the “Grand Coalition”  alive,  with little or no  forceful action taken to address the  immense problems  which  currently  are causing  unrest and growing anger  in the population.