BERLUSCONI - HAS THE ARTFUL DODGER MET HIS MATCH?

Article published by "Open Democracy"  on August 12 2013

It is never easy to write  about the  Italian political situation, but after  the  verdict handed out by the highest court confirming a four year jail sentence, for tax fraud,  against the  previously indestructible former Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi,  epochal questions arise over the future of this  fragile government,  over  Mr. Berlusconi himself and, even more so, over  Italy’s  own political destiny.

 More than ever before,  Mr. Berlusconi’s actions and behaviour  bring to mind Charles Dickens’ “Artful Dodger”,  even up to the words of defiance  uttered  very shortly after  the  news of the verdict reached him, and reiterated in a much publicized  pubic appearance a few days later. However, unlike Oliver Twist's friend, Berlusconi will not end up in a penal colony, or, indeed, in a prison cell, but will continue to be an uncomfortable presence in  Italian political life and will pose a real threat to the  government’s stability and  survival.

The government’s survival

It has to be remembered that the present Government in Italy has one of the largest majorities in the Republic’s history, bringing together, after weeks of sterile negotiations, the two main political parties,  Berlusconi’s “People of Liberty” and the  Centre-Left “Democratic Party”, until recently   opponents in a cut-throat electoral campaign, unprecedented for  its acrimony and verbal violence.  Paradoxically, however, this  vast, apparently unassailable majority, does not keep the government alliance  from being extremely fragile and  unstable, held together  mainly by the  fear, shared by both protagonists, of having to face the angry and disillusioned Italian electorate again after an election, held in February, which had cost both of them millions of votes, most of which went to Beppe Grillo’s maverick “Five Stars” movement, a veritable thorn in the side of both  the leading parties.

After the  verdict delivered on the first of August, more than one political commentator has defined the Government as a “dead man walking”, the main burden falling not on Berlusconi’s movement but on the   majority Democratic party who will have a difficult time explaining to their electorate  their choice to continue sharing  the burdens of government with a  party led by a  convicted felon. The next few days, therefore, will be quite crucial in determining whether this  brave experiment at a “grand coalition” will have any chance of survival beyond the Summer.

At the moment, after 100 days in which virtually nothing has been achieved,  one has the eerie feeling of  witnessing  an oneiric situation, in which the members of the government are clinging to a raft which is floating out of control down a  treacherous river. They know that the rapids are  not far away, but dare not touch the shores (i.e. end the experiment and  call early elections) because they know that these are populated by hostile tribes, and  thence the brave   insistence that “the show must go on” for the good of the country,

The  prevailing feeling, however,  is that,  sooner or later, some catalytic event will cause the   government’s  implosion, the only question   being how long this situation can endure.

Mr. Berlusconi’s future

But what about Berlusconi himself? Has he really reached the end of his political career? Many would wish to think so, but he has been written off more than once in the past and has always  managed to stage  an incredible comeback. According to recent legislation, no person  having been sentenced to two years or more imprisonment   should be allowed to sit in Parliament: and here comes the first uncertainty which will have to be tackled by his  present  allies:  Berlusconi has been sentenced to  four years, but, according to  another  strange instrument of Italian legislation, the first three years of his sentence are condoned, and so, “de facto” he should serve only one year.  A  political-legal battle will take place  to determine which of these terms  needs to be considered, and  further  doubts arise as to whether the Democratic Party will, in any case,   find the political courage to vote for the removal from the Senate of the  leader of their  principal ally in Government. By the month of October,  an additional sentence of up to three years’ interdiction from public office will probably  be  issued, but this should not necessarily stop him from running his political party “from the outside”, just as Beppe Grillo has done, being interdicted from seeking office because of a  preceding penal sentence. By playing the part of an innocent victim of a “left-wing judicial conspiracy”, Berlusconi could even increase his party’s as well as his own  popularity and cause further turmoil on the Italian political scene: the paradox here would be  that the Democratic Party would end up being damaged  more than any other, because of the verdict  against its main opponent.

There has been insistent talk of asking the President of the Republic, Giorgio Napolitano, to grant Berlusconi a “presidential pardon”, but there are strong doubts as to whether this path will be undertaken, also in view of the fact that Mr. Berlusconi is facing even stiffer sentences in the near future, for crimes  of a rather graver nature, among which the accusation of having had sexual relations with  a minor.

Last Sunday a large demonstration by Berlusconi supporters was planned in the Centre of Rome. Buses were laid on, and the participants were offered a free meal. The crowd was  vociferous, but  disappointingly scanty, and this is also a factor that Berlusconi needs to consider before  taking any  potentially rash decisions.

Italy’s political future

The real question goes well beyond Berlusconi’s personal fate or the Government’s immediate  chances of survival, and concerns the  future of the democratic process itself in a country  in the throes of an economic, political and moral crisis  unprecedented since the immediate post-war years. Italy’s history  shows that a state of turmoil and  confrontation has been a constant  for centuries, and that Italians have   always  overcome their difficulties, mainly by  shrugging them off as matters concerning “others” (i.e. the Pope, and the Emperor in the distant past, the  Political parties or the “Caste” in the present day). This attitude of cynical sagacity may,  however, no longer be possible, given the immediacy of  all communication and the highly felt  apprehension for the future, combined with the dramatic fall in the standard of living, with no immediate prospect of  a turn-around.