BERLUSCONI - HAS THE ARTFUL DODGER MET HIS MATCH?

Article published by "Open Democracy"  on August 12 2013

It is never easy to write  about the  Italian political situation, but after  the  verdict handed out by the highest court confirming a four year jail sentence, for tax fraud,  against the  previously indestructible former Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi,  epochal questions arise over the future of this  fragile government,  over  Mr. Berlusconi himself and, even more so, over  Italy’s  own political destiny.

 More than ever before,  Mr. Berlusconi’s actions and behaviour  bring to mind Charles Dickens’ “Artful Dodger”,  even up to the words of defiance  uttered  very shortly after  the  news of the verdict reached him, and reiterated in a much publicized  pubic appearance a few days later. However, unlike Oliver Twist's friend, Berlusconi will not end up in a penal colony, or, indeed, in a prison cell, but will continue to be an uncomfortable presence in  Italian political life and will pose a real threat to the  government’s stability and  survival.

The government’s survival

It has to be remembered that the present Government in Italy has one of the largest majorities in the Republic’s history, bringing together, after weeks of sterile negotiations, the two main political parties,  Berlusconi’s “People of Liberty” and the  Centre-Left “Democratic Party”, until recently   opponents in a cut-throat electoral campaign, unprecedented for  its acrimony and verbal violence.  Paradoxically, however, this  vast, apparently unassailable majority, does not keep the government alliance  from being extremely fragile and  unstable, held together  mainly by the  fear, shared by both protagonists, of having to face the angry and disillusioned Italian electorate again after an election, held in February, which had cost both of them millions of votes, most of which went to Beppe Grillo’s maverick “Five Stars” movement, a veritable thorn in the side of both  the leading parties.

After the  verdict delivered on the first of August, more than one political commentator has defined the Government as a “dead man walking”, the main burden falling not on Berlusconi’s movement but on the   majority Democratic party who will have a difficult time explaining to their electorate  their choice to continue sharing  the burdens of government with a  party led by a  convicted felon. The next few days, therefore, will be quite crucial in determining whether this  brave experiment at a “grand coalition” will have any chance of survival beyond the Summer.

At the moment, after 100 days in which virtually nothing has been achieved,  one has the eerie feeling of  witnessing  an oneiric situation, in which the members of the government are clinging to a raft which is floating out of control down a  treacherous river. They know that the rapids are  not far away, but dare not touch the shores (i.e. end the experiment and  call early elections) because they know that these are populated by hostile tribes, and  thence the brave   insistence that “the show must go on” for the good of the country,

The  prevailing feeling, however,  is that,  sooner or later, some catalytic event will cause the   government’s  implosion, the only question   being how long this situation can endure.

Mr. Berlusconi’s future

But what about Berlusconi himself? Has he really reached the end of his political career? Many would wish to think so, but he has been written off more than once in the past and has always  managed to stage  an incredible comeback. According to recent legislation, no person  having been sentenced to two years or more imprisonment   should be allowed to sit in Parliament: and here comes the first uncertainty which will have to be tackled by his  present  allies:  Berlusconi has been sentenced to  four years, but, according to  another  strange instrument of Italian legislation, the first three years of his sentence are condoned, and so, “de facto” he should serve only one year.  A  political-legal battle will take place  to determine which of these terms  needs to be considered, and  further  doubts arise as to whether the Democratic Party will, in any case,   find the political courage to vote for the removal from the Senate of the  leader of their  principal ally in Government. By the month of October,  an additional sentence of up to three years’ interdiction from public office will probably  be  issued, but this should not necessarily stop him from running his political party “from the outside”, just as Beppe Grillo has done, being interdicted from seeking office because of a  preceding penal sentence. By playing the part of an innocent victim of a “left-wing judicial conspiracy”, Berlusconi could even increase his party’s as well as his own  popularity and cause further turmoil on the Italian political scene: the paradox here would be  that the Democratic Party would end up being damaged  more than any other, because of the verdict  against its main opponent.

There has been insistent talk of asking the President of the Republic, Giorgio Napolitano, to grant Berlusconi a “presidential pardon”, but there are strong doubts as to whether this path will be undertaken, also in view of the fact that Mr. Berlusconi is facing even stiffer sentences in the near future, for crimes  of a rather graver nature, among which the accusation of having had sexual relations with  a minor.

Last Sunday a large demonstration by Berlusconi supporters was planned in the Centre of Rome. Buses were laid on, and the participants were offered a free meal. The crowd was  vociferous, but  disappointingly scanty, and this is also a factor that Berlusconi needs to consider before  taking any  potentially rash decisions.

Italy’s political future

The real question goes well beyond Berlusconi’s personal fate or the Government’s immediate  chances of survival, and concerns the  future of the democratic process itself in a country  in the throes of an economic, political and moral crisis  unprecedented since the immediate post-war years. Italy’s history  shows that a state of turmoil and  confrontation has been a constant  for centuries, and that Italians have   always  overcome their difficulties, mainly by  shrugging them off as matters concerning “others” (i.e. the Pope, and the Emperor in the distant past, the  Political parties or the “Caste” in the present day). This attitude of cynical sagacity may,  however, no longer be possible, given the immediacy of  all communication and the highly felt  apprehension for the future, combined with the dramatic fall in the standard of living, with no immediate prospect of  a turn-around.

ALL QUIET ON THE ITALIAN FRONT

Article published by "Open Democracy" in June, 2013

To the inexperienced eye, all appearances would seem to indicate that the Italian political scene – normally rather colourful and volatile – has quieted down  to a considerable extent, to the point of having become rather humdrum and devoid of  general interest.  Extremely significant municipal elections have been held in many  cities (including Rome), both on the continent and in Sicily, with no major surprises and  in an atmosphere of  good-humoured tranquillity. The conclusion, therefore, would seem to indicate that all is quiet on the Italian political front (a circumstance, in itself, likely to arouse suspicion and apprehension), but the reality is, instead  really  quite different. This extremely odd  “grand coalition” government,  even  more incongruous than its  “technical” predecessor, emerges  greatly weakened  and condemned to  impotence, as, indeed,  it has already shown, having emerged as  one of the most unproductive governments in recent Italian history. Paradoxically, its survival, at least over the next few months, appears guaranteed, but only  by   the understandable fear, by both of the leading parties, of facing  an increasingly angry and unpredictable electorate in case of early elections. Even a superficial analysis of the vote, held over the past two weeks, and still  having to be concluded in Sicily, indisputably shows that again, just as in the case of February’s national elections,  there have been no winners, but only losers, this time including  the maverick “5 Stars movement” founded and led by former comedian Beppe Grillo.

Four key factors have emerged from  these  local elections.

Firstly the ever increasing rate of abstentions. In a country where, even a couple of decades ago, a 90% electoral turnout was considered normal,  the percentage of voters has dropped to just over 50%,  and  the  non voters thus  form a considerable  political force. There are mixed reactions to this phenomenon. The prevailing feeling is that  the exceptional rate of abstention, and, above all,  its vertiginously  rapid  increase,  denotes  a growing sense of disillusionment and anger on the part of the electorate, and that  this widespread feeling could  play into the hands of any new  populist  movement, especially if  “right-wing”, anti European and hostile to immigrant labour. More optimistic, or at least cautious,  observers, however,  seem to  believe that this is a normal  trend which brings Italy closer to older established democracies,  the examples of France, the United Kingdom and the United States are usually cited, in which the rate of   abstention is normally just as high, even higher,  with no  doubts being expressed on the legitimacy of the emerging governments. This optimistic, or more positive assessment, however,  fails to take into account a fundamental aspect of political life in Italy, as compared to the other    countries indicated as examples. The Italian electorate’s role in the democratic process  has always been limited to the vote,  after which things tend to be  “left to the politicians” until the  next  electoral appointment, with no significant participation to the political  process at the grass-roots level. This is what, in the prevailing view, makes “turn-out” such a vital issue in Italy..

The second element to emerge – but which has to be taken with a great deal of caution – has been the virtual collapse of the maverick “Five Stars” movement led by former comedian Beppe Grillo. Triumphant at the outcome of  its first ever national electoral test last February, the “Movement” emerged as Italy’s strongest single political party, thus creating a  virtually unmanageable three-way tie with the  left wing Democratic Party and Mr. Berlusconi's “People of Liberty”, basically the  greatest loser in the process.

Also the further  weakening of  Berlusconi’s party has to be taken into account,  mainly  because, paradoxically, in spite of its miserable showing last February, it still is an influential participant in the “grand coalition” and, for the time being, seems  to be in a position to call many of the  shots, through a masterful use of the constant threat of causing  paralysis by  refusing to play the game, as temperamental  children threaten to do  on the play-ground.. As a perhaps marginal, but not insignificant corollary, it has to be noted that Berlusconi’s traditional ally, the “Northern League”, torn by vicious internal rifts and fighting,  has lost  key positions and major cities in an area which has always been considered its home ground (i.e. the North and the North East).

“If Athens cries, even Sparta can’t laugh” was the saying that emerged at the end of the  Peloponnesian conflict (Fourth Century BC), and it is  much quoted in Italy these days in order to illustrate the paucity of the Democratic Party’s victory. The paradoxes, which abound in the sometimes indecipherable Italian political context,  are confirmed by the fact that  the  leading political party, victorious in February’s general elections,  which has just made a record-breaking clean  sweep of all the municipal elections,  winning them all and leaving none to the opposition, in reality has emerged weakened, and not strengthened by the experience. And this ongoing, apparently incurable weakness in Italy’s centre-left  “Democratic Party” is the fourth of the above quoted factors  to be taken into account.

The  deeper reasons behind the exceptional rate of abstention will have to be examined with care and competence in the near future, when it will be possible to   break the numbers down into age,  professional and other groupings: a superficial view, as yet unconfirmed,   seems to indicate that  it affects the younger electorate in greater numbers.

It is difficult to  foresee what the future holds in store for Grillo’s movement, but there are signs of a growing disaffection not only in the electorate, but also within the movement itself, due  to Grillo’s excessively dictatorial stance, to some very obvious tactical and strategic mistakes   made   at a moment in which the movement was  on the crest of the wave, as well as to the  confusion which seems to reign over the movement’s official position on many key issues.  The fact is that, politically speaking,  the entire movement, from Grillo down, is basically  made up by political amateurs who proved to be no match against their much more seasoned peers  in the traditional parties.  There is time for   regrouping and recovery, but  at the moment the trend  appears rather negative,

Berlusconi’s party,  a bit like Grillo’s, suffers from the fact that it is essentially a one-man show, and the “Cavaliere”, as he is known,  has never really attempted to groom  younger party members in the art of political leadership. In fact, he always appeared to be rather suspicious of  political allies who threatened to be seen as “charismatic”, and has systematically and ruthlessly eliminated them. The crisis within the party is very deep, and Berlusconi’s advancing age (he is 77) and his  judicial  problems which might end up making him  legally ineligible to run for office are all elements which add to the visible discomfort of Italy’s centre-right.

By contrast, the Democratic Party suffers from a lack of leadership and  of internal cohesion. A Party Congress will be held in the Fall, but  the danger of a split is  ever present, and would certainly further complicate  the situation.

The present government, holder of a massive parliamentary majority, has not achieved much in these first weeks of existence and arouses  almost no   confidence  in the  Italian public opinion. Grounds for optimism have always been tenuous, and are now  very quickly disappearing.