ITALY'S PERFECT STORM

Rome. March 5 2013

THIS ARTICLE WAS PUBLISHED BY "OPEN  DEMOCRACY" IN EARLY MARCH. IT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN HIGHLY PROPHETIC, UNFORTUNATELY)

Some foreign publications, in commenting the situation in Italy after the recent electoral results, have reverted to the offensively superficial  and trite image of “bring on the clowns”. The term, however can be used both in a derogatory and a purely descriptive sense, and the one real winner of the election, Mr. Beppe Grillo, being a professional comedian, could be called a “clown” without  causing offence. Politically speaking, however, the  epithet would not apply. Grillo has shown remarkable ability, and has created a powerful  political movement, the  single party which has  received the greatest number of votes (around 25%) from scratch, with no public financial backing, and in the teeth of ridicule at first and then very  violent criticism on the part of almost  all the media. Whether this structure will show itself to be stable and lasting is another question, but it certainly wields decisive  weight at this time. The same publications apply the epithet also referring to Mr. Berlusconi,  mainly because, in their very superficial view of the situation, they consider him as being one of the “winners”, even though his Party has had the poorest electoral result in its history.

The Italian press, perhaps more imaginative and often aiming at a higher  cultural level, has preferred to describe the present political situation with the term “Perfect Storm”, which appears much more suitable.

It would be  wrong to state that  there is no solution to the problems arising from Italy’s recent elections: the art of politics, after all, thrives on the search for unlikely solutions to complex situations, and this has  very often been the case in Italian republican history.  Doubts  can be raised, however as to whether there are any good or lasting solutions to the present situation of chaos.

Italy is no stranger to tense, unwieldy and even potentially dangerous political situations, but never, not in 1948,  when the charismatic leader of Italy’s powerful Communist Party was shot and severely wounded while leaving Parliament, not even  during the terrorist years in the seventies, culminating with the  kidnapping and  assassination of a former Prime Minister has there been a storm as “perfect” as this one.

The elections held last February  resulted in a virtual tie among three political groups which show no inclination of  wanting to work together towards a solution, albeit temporary, of the crisis. Former Prime Minister Mario Monti, had he abstained from entering such a violent, unproductive electoral fray, could have emerged once again as a  presidential choice to lead an emergency government  with the aim of  bringing sufficient stability to enable the Government to continue on its  very controversial path toward reform. As it is,  having suffered a humiliating electoral defeat, he appears to have burned his bridges, and one of the few areas of agreement among the other three contenders is their refusal to envisage any form of cooperation with Monti or his  coalition.

Political analysts , at this point, see only  three possible outcomes:

-          a German style “Grand Coalition” in which the two archenemies, the Democratic Party and Mr. Berlusconi’s “People of Liberty”, both heavy losers in the  recent elections, unite in a majority and form a Government  mandated to solve the  country’s more pressing problems;

-          a “minority Government”, in which the ostensible “winner” of the  elections (i.e. the coalition with  the  greatest number of votes), the Democratic Party, would be  asked to form a Government, having negotiated an unsteady truce aimed at ensuring that the remaining forces in Parliament will not  create a “no confidence” situation;

-          a “President’s Government”, in which, with some analogy to the  Monti experience, and to some precedents in Italy’s recent history, president Napolitano asks an outsider – possibly one of the numerous “elder statesmen”  so abundant in Italy – to form an “apolitical” Government, with the support of both the major  contending coalitions.

The situation is greatly complicated by the fact that president Napolitano, being in the last semester of his mandate,  has his hands tied and is prevented, by the Constitution, from dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections.

None of the above scenarios appear realistic, at least  how things stand now.

In the thirteen months of  Professor Monti’s “Technical Government”, its supporting  majority in Parliament was massive, ensured by the very two parties which would be now called upon to cooperate, and yet  nothing was achieved  outside of the measures imposed by the Government itself.  The result, in electoral terms was the loss of an estimated 5 million votes by Berlusconi and 3 million by the Democratic Party, all to the benefit of Genoese comedian Beppe Grillo’s basically populist “Five Stars Movement”. There never was  a desire to work together, and now, of course, especially after the heavy-handed insults traded during the electoral campaign, the very idea  would appear repugnant to their electors.

A “minority Government”, headed by the Democratic Party, would have to rely on Grillo’ external support, thus allowing him to hold the Democratic Party hostage and perhaps attempt to impose measures totally unpalatable to its more “reformist” members, with the risk of the party splitting into splinter groups. Grillo could also, at any moment, withdraw his support and force new elections.

A “President’s Government” could cause  a veritable upheaval and provoke violent criticism   at the popular level mainly, of course, amongst  Grillo’s supporters, who could  immediately accuse the President (and the “establishment”) of  flouting the Constitution and of ignoring democratic  principles. It could be done, but with scant   chances of lasting success, since it would  be seen as carrying further votes to the Genoese comedian.

Some are putting forward a solution which  owes more to fantasy than to political realism, but this does not automatically exclude it from succeeding.

If president Napolitano, tearing a leaf out of Benedict XVI’s book,  should resign ahead of the end of his mandate (May of this year), Parliament would be compelled to elect a new  President.  Once elected,  he (or, as some would prefer, she) could  undertake a new attempt to form a Government  with the  impending  threat of calling new elections right away in case of failure. At this moment both the leading Coalitions fear  elections like the Bubonic Plague, and could therefore  feel compelled to toe the line. This unprecedented situation, improbable though it may appear, is not outside the realm of possibility.

At the moment, however,  the impasse appears to be total, and the solution, when it will be found,  will most probably only have temporary and unsatisfactory results, leaving Italy's most pressing problems unsolved.

This  indeed  has all the makings of a “perfect storm”.