Italy. Berlusconi’s downfall. The end of “Videocracy?

 Mr. Silvio Berlusconi, a pivotal presence in Italian politics for the past two decades,  formally announced his retirement from political activity, and a day later, after being sentenced  to a prison term for tax fraud, announced, instead, his return. The announcements were greeted with  relief ,  incredulity and derision, and are an invitation  to analyze both his  brutally  uninhibited use of  the Media – especially Television - to enhance his presence and appearance, as well as his rapid fall, to the point of becoming an almost pathetic figure..

The term “Videocracy”,  coined  by Italian film-maker Erik Gandini, was the title of a controversial 2009  documentary which described and explained the  ruthless use made by  Berlusconi of the many TV  outlets he either directly or indirectly controlled.

The subtitle of the film, however,  “basta apparire” (“It is enough to appear”) is  even more noteworthy and illustrates  the growing need for constant visibility, not only in public life.

An appearance  on  a TV programme – any programme, no matter how insignificant, vulgar or unintelligent – had become essential to satisfy career ambitions and, in particular, was seen as a very likely  introduction to positions of responsibility, especially in the glitzy political  world  characteristic of the Berlusconi years.

Significantly, a considerable number of teen-age girls, when interviewed about their  ambitions for the future, put, as a first (and  sometimes only) choice, participation and victory in a beauty contest, any beauty contest, as long as it was televised. Indeed, many Italian  female parliamentarians, and a number of particularly glamorous and inefficient cabinet ministers in Italy’s self-styled “second Republic” began their careers either as beauty queens or in similar pursuits.

“Videocracy”, therefore, was alive and well, and the need to “appear” was universally felt.

 Clever and apt though the term may be, and however accurate the interpretations given, three  immediate  considerations come to mind, especially when it is applied to political leadership..

The first of these, historical in nature,  has nothing to do with television, but essentially with the subtitle, that is, the need for a leader (or an aspiring leader) to be visible, and this has always been  true  both in democratic societies and in others. In military campaigns, for example,  a successful commander, to gain the loyalty and  affection of his troops,   had to be  seen leading his men, taking the same risks, and showing himself to the enemy. Julius Caesar was a master at this type of visibility, and through  able and  credible  spin doctors, made sure that  news of his  courage and military prowess  was spread with great speed  among the people of the Republic which he was serving, and which he is, somewhat unfairly and superficially, accused of having destroyed.

 The Emperor, the King, the Dictator and other leaders have always had to show themselves to the people in order to encourage and maintain their affection and support, and this truth has been well known  throughout the ages. Image and reality have always had to merge, and this takes  a considerable amount of manipulation.

Of course, since the twentieth century,  through the miracles of  cinema newsreels, of radio and, finally, of television, there has been an exponential growth in the  visibility of leaders. As a result, today, it is very difficult – not only in “personality cult” dictatorships, but also in democratic societies – to avoid being constantly exposed to their voice and image.

This  leads directly to the second of the critical considerations,  i.e. the danger of over-exposure, which could, in the long run, threaten to alienate the very people who are supposed to be attracted and fascinated,

There are  credible indications that this could well be the case, at least in some societies, such as Italy itself.  “Videocracy”,   brought to an unprecedented level by Berlusconi, seems to have peaked, with the apparent effect of  turning public opinion away from politics  and creating an aura of indifference and contempt. This is indicated, primarily, by the incredible and growing percentage (over 30%) of people who, according to reliable polls, do not intend to vote in the next elections, and this in a country in which a voter turnout below 85% was usually considered disappointing. In the latest regional elections in Sicily, once a Berlusconi stronghold,  the voter turnout was  under 50%, an unprecedented event in Italy, and  Berlusconi’s  “Liberty” party  lost heavily. Other indications are the catastrophic fall in the former Prime Minister’s personal popularity and the unpredicted growth of a totally populist “anti-political” movement led by an erstwhile comedian, Beppe Grillo who now leads what could possibly be the second largest political party in the country.

A third, and very significant question arises from these considerations, and  people are  asking themselves if “Videocracy’s” ultimate effect will be the end of  the democratic process as it has been known until now with, perhaps, a return to a quasi-Grecian  model based essentially on local politics, and with the internet substituting the Agora. This is not a vain or otiose question, but a consideration which deserves  attention and careful reflection.

Afghanistan’s Civil Society faces a perilous future

(Article published by "Oped News" on November 21, 2012

The resignation of General David Petraeus certainly brings to mind his role in the Afghanistan conflict and ought to stimulate us to focus  attention on  that country, which, beyond occasional reports of violence against civilians or NATO forces, nowadays tends to be ignored  by international commentators.

Ever since its  inception  the unfortunate Afghan venture appeared haunted by the risk  of a  hurried departure of the invading forces with no real, valid or credible “exit strategy”  having been planned. This  prospect  has recently emerged with particular vigour, and there is indeed a growing fear that Afghanistan, if left to its own devices, will be unable to avoid civil war and  virtual collapse.

As a consequence,  in the future memory of the Afghan people, the present invasion may well be  seen as  even more damaging than the   Soviet occupation of the 1980’s, which caused  extremely critical and hostile reactions in the West, to the point of the United States displaying its “moral outrage” by boycotting the Moscow Olympics of 1980.

Stripping  political rhetoric from all the statements and justifications put forth first from one side (The Soviet Union), then the other (NATO allies), the political and strategic “rasonnieren” behind the two invasions  have  much more in common than what could be normally suspected.

The initial phase of the Soviet invasion – ostensibly on the “request” of the Afghan government – appeared  particularly violent and brutal,  with the very Government which had allegedly  formulated the “request” being mowed down by firing squads, as a prelude to the formation of an adequately “obedient” regime.

NATO’s opening moves seemed more acceptable to the International Community, also because,  to a certain extent, the  “niceties” of international intercourse were respected: a formal, although obviously unacceptable ultimatum was issued,  and the invasion took place with a double asserted  purpose. One of these, the  elimination of the Al Qaeda headquarters,  had, at least, an aura of legitimacy. The  other motivation  was to bring about a “regime change” and install an obedient and docile government  in the place of the Taleban.

This goal was  not  all that different from the one pursued a couple of decades earlier by the Soviet Union, and is quite probably destined to a similar, ignominious  fate..

The two invasions were therefore both of dubious legality, with the  Soviet venture being very strongly stigmatized in the West and causing a major Cold War crisis with  long term effects far graver than the boycotting of the Moscow Olympics, such as a long and violent civil war and the creation of the Taleban, imagined then as a useful anti-Communist tool.  By contrast, in the general climate of  understandable indignation caused by the  September 11 attacks, the NATO invasion received little criticism, and was generally seen to be justified by the need to eliminate the  Al Qaeda power structure.

The apparently excessive brutality exercised against  civilian populations soon, however, attracted some  guarded criticism which, with the passage of time, grew into a mounting opposition  in the public opinion within the participating NATO countries. The governments of the  NATO powers involved, however, felt tied to an international commitment which, in their view,   had to be respected. Acceptance – sometimes wholehearted and enthusiastic – of NATO operations was encouraged by a vigorous press and propaganda campaign launched by ISAF, which  had the practical result of  creating a “de facto” complicity between the International Mainstream Media and NATO.

 On the occasion of its withdrawal,  the Soviet Union, until it lasted, remained essentially  supportive of the puppet government it had left behind, but this  served  only to delay and could not prevent the civil war which broke out almost immediately after its collapse.

Legitimate doubts arise on whether it will it be possible for NATO, upon its departure,  to avoid  the total disintegration of the fragile  socio-political structure left behind after  over a decade of  occupation. The signs point  to the inevitability of a chaotic outcome.

Many diverse  political scenarios  could arise as a consequence of this ill-fated military mission,  and in the little time left  greater attention should be focussed on the fate of the Afghan civilian population, victim of a present-day particularly cynical version of the “Great Game”.  Recent “disclosures” on the presence of  mineral wealth in Afghanistan’s soil will not help the situation, and, in reality, are a complicating factor.

For all its undeniable brutality, the Soviet occupation furthered the development of an already rather dynamic civil society, and growing numbers of children and young adults, particularly women,  continued to have access to educational and training facilities both at home and abroad, being thus moved away from the more extreme forms of religious fundamentalism. The hiatus caused first by the  civil war, and then by the years of  Taleban led regime was certainly a setback,  but  some ground was regained, though in a less systematic fashion, in the course of  the  present occupation. In spite of  all these decades of foreign occupation and internal conflict, and  notwithstanding  all the negative images we receive of the country, Afghan civil society continues to be a potential asset, indeed, perhaps the only real hope for  that country’s future development.

A critical analysis of the errors committed in these past years which have  handicapped  the full emergence of this civil society would be relatively easy, but  quite useless at this stage, while attempts to  foresee and to curtail the  damage that the NATO military withdrawal  will  cause  to the Afghan civilian population – particularly, but not exclusively the women – is certainly of much greater  urgency and interest.

It seems quite fair to state that the military situation in Afghanistan has not met its ill-defined goals, and is destined to a disappointing end. This, however lends even greater poignancy to the  basic question of whether  a way can be found of avoiding the tragic sequel which seems inevitable, and which will further damage a civilian population which certainly deserves a  better fate.

Although it is probably too late, efforts ought to be directed not so much in the strengthening of a corrupt and inept central government, but in the enhancement of  local autonomies, in which populations  flourish which have  little or no sympathy for Taleban inspired extremism, both for ideological reasons and for  ancient, deep-rooted tribal and ethnic differences. The risks are notable, especially in some regions in which the old “warlords” still wield influence, but attempts should be made to  concentrate the  future Taleban authority’s power and influence in areas  more sympathetic to their ideology and  ethnically closer to them.

If this approach had been adopted  some years ago, as suggested by some observers since early 2005, the Afghan problem would perhaps be more manageable today. Late as it is, some hope  could be held  for  a less disastrous outcome should it be adopted now.

CAN THE “EUROPEAN DREAM” SURVIVE?

(Article published by Oped News in October 2012)

The reality  of “the American Dream” is a frequent debating point.  Some  deny it ever existed except as a slogan, while others instead assert that  the concept, which had an indispensable formative function  over several generations,  has been surpassed by  more concrete realities. A sizeable section of American Public opinion is, as yet,  firmly convinced that the American Dream has always existed, continues to exist today and has bright  prospects for the future.

Has a “European Dream” ever existed, and if so,  is it still redeemable, or is it lapsing into the old  European Nationalist nightmare?

Learned historians have explained why, after the fall of Rome,  the succeeding imperial ventures in Europe had  a divisive, and not a unifying effect, and how, from an essential, if fragile unity,  Nation States came to be formed and  thrived on  rivalries and wars. Over a millennium,  many  Emperors,  from Charlemagne to Napoleon,  ended up enhancing, sometimes even creating,   nationalist attitudes which reached their most ruinous effect in the World Wars  of the twentieth century.

And yet for Europeans of my generation,  a “European Dream” did begin to take shape, inspired by  a handful of  ageing statesmen (Adenauer, De Gasperi, Schumann, Monnet, Spaak and others) who really appeared to interpret the profoundest wishes of the people they represented and to work towards the  weakening of  those nationalist impulses which had led to such disasters. When the  Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957 among the six founding  members of what was then called the “European Common Market” (France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, The Netherlands and Luxembourg), many of us really felt that we were witnessing the dawn of a new era.

Even some years later, when the “Six” became “Nine”, with the addition of the United Kingdom, Ireland and Denmark, and  later still, when the almost mystic number of twelve was reached, the meetings among the member states, either in Brussels or in the presiding country’s capital, had an air of serious, meaningful informality about them, with officials, often on first name terms, meeting  around a table and openly discussing the principal problems.

By contrast, the  gigantic workings of today’s “European Union” seem to have lost the original spirit and principles  and  at times come  close  to rekindling  those very nationalist feelings  which we so  purposefully,  at times, perhaps, a bit naively struggled to weaken and ultimately eliminate.

Three essential questions remain on the table. Firstly, has the fundamental vision of the founders been betrayed? If so what went wrong, and when did things begin to unravel? And, thirdly, is there a way back, or is Europe destined to  become ever more quarrelsome and disunited?

The term “betrayed” appears perhaps too strong, and  unfair to those leaders who, in the past years, have attempted to bring forward  the ideals which were at the base of the Union. Their essence, however, has been lost in a bureaucratic quagmire, complicated by the current world-wide economic crisis. Entire generations of  Europeans, by now, have lived in the awareness that a growing number of increasingly important decisions concerning their  destiny and even their day-to-day existence are being taken, in a political no-mans-land, by unelected officials.

As to the second query, it has to be said that  a rapidly shrinking minority will still insist that, in reality, nothing ever “went wrong”, and that the E.U. is bravely and efficiently coping with a world economic crisis the origins of which lie outside the Union itself. Public opinion, however, even in the most traditionally “Europhile” countries (e.g. the Netherlands or Italy) appears to disagree and has developed  feelings of antipathy  towards the  “faceless bureaucrats” who seem to be in charge of the collective destinies of  European citizens. .

Even among those ready to accept the concept that, indeed, things  have been  going wrong,  the  moment and the motive for the apparent unravelling of a well-fashioned skein remain objects of acute controversy. Some  blame  the apparently abnormal growth of bureaucratic  regulations, while others decry the creation of a common currency without the guarantees normally associated with monetary policy.

On the basis of  nearly half a century of professional involvement in the workings of the E.U., my own view – controversial but by no means unique – lays the blame for the present crisis on the hurried, poorly planned post Cold War expansion of the Union, to its present, virtually uncontrollable size of 27 member States..

Solutions will have to be found – and the elimination of the “Euro” is not one of them – but there appear few and tenuous  possibilities of the European Union returning to its original sense of purpose and efficiency. All efforts will have to be concentrated in coping with the present situation in order to restore credibility to a wounded giant which instead of instilling hope and confidence in its citizens, appears to be a source of increasing irritation, suspicion and apprehension.

Carlo Ungaro

As the Romans Do?

(Article published by Oped News on October 2, 2012)

Rome,  September 26, 2012

The  Regional  Government of the  Lazio Region – which has Rome as its capital -  has been rocked by  one of the many squalid scandals which periodically emerge on the Italian political scene. This would normally have gone almost unnoticed, save for the   customary, obligatory, and totally insincere expressions of indignation  and disbelief on the part of the  country’s political leadership. A stage has  been reached, however, in which even Italians appear shocked and appalled by  the snowballing spate of  such grubby events which seem to pervade all  sectors of public life from the  deep South (stereotyped as  fundamentally corrupt, unreliable and scandal-prone) to the “puritan” North,  with its quasi-Protestant attitudes and ostentatiously  Manichean or neo-Albigensian views on the distinction  between “Good” and “Evil”.

A detailed explanation of  the latest  episode of Roman  squalor would be of scarce interest to the general public. Suffice it to say that the  regional administration has spent about  one million Euros of public money  in  luxury holidays, sumptuous meals,  lavish parties, and even, more unassumingly, grocery shopping for the “Nomenklatura”. The statuesque Governor of the region, Renata Polverini, a real “Pasionaria” of the Catholic right  - of course, one of former Prime Minister Berlusconi’s protégées -  has vehemently proclaimed her innocence, and, very much less credibly, her  ignorance of any wrongdoing in her administration. She therefore  adamantly refused to resign until forced to do so under pressure from various sources, including the Roman Catholic Church. It is interesting that in the culture that created the principle of “culpa in vigilando” (i.e. guilt in vigilance), whenever there is evidence of malfeasance or thievery in public affairs,  the men and women at the top   always affirm their innocence and usually find a convenient scapegoat, among the lower officials,  whose resignation is then reluctantly accepted.

There are some arresting aspects to this case, however, which deserve notice, and which could have  a deep influence on Italy’s political future.

At the time of her  election, Ms. Polverini had  the   total support of the Italian Episcopal Conference, to a point then  judged  excessive even considering the less than limpid record of  Roman Catholic Church  intrusion in Italian political life. It is therefore  extremely interesting to notice the  unusual firmness of the same Episcopal Conference’s    reaction and condemnation of the event, a fact made all the more wounding by its immediacy on the part  of an organization which has always taken its time to react, but which never reacts without careful reflection.

All this gains further relevance because  it  is taking place at a moment in which the Pope’s personal interference in Italian politics, after many months of virtual silence, has made itself  extremely evident and heavy-handed. The Holy Father, in fact, in the space of  a few days has  received both the Prime Minister, Professor Monti, and the rather equivocal leader of the “centrist” political party, Pier Ferdinando Casini, who has long been tagged as the future king-maker in the  approaching “post-Monti”  years. All this has stolen much of the thunder from Silvio Berlusconi’s carefully rehearsed  act in which he   tries to keep the public in suspense about his possible Parusia (even though, in his case, it would be a fifth and not a second coming,  dispensing with the uncomfortable need for  death and resurrection).

Political parties in Italy have been used to this  type of “Commedia dell’Arte”, which has been  tolerated  by the electorate. They are only now sensing, however, that  attitudes have changed, that Italians are no longer amused at  seeing  lavish dinners paid for  by public money, and that they no longer listen to the  empty, repetitious words  heard every evening on Television: this could be the triumph of what has been called the “anti-politica”, and has opened the way for  populist movements  which are gaining momentum in spite of  coming constantly under fire on Public and Private TV Channels and  by most of the  leading press.

The political parties which now support this “technical government” – which, it needs to be said, has  probably saved Italy from financial, economic and social disaster – are quite obviously terrified at the idea of general elections which, however, will have to be held at the latest next April.

It appears more than likely that  in the  real corridors of power,  arrangements are being made even at this early stage, with no need for electoral manipulation or fraud.

It does not matter who will win the next elections, which  will be held with the lowest voter turnout in Italian history, because there will be no alternative to a repletion of the present “unholy alliance” among formerly contrasting parties, this time in favour of a  Catholic-oriented centrist government    bolstered by a large and compact parliamentary majority.  There is even talk of confirming  Professor Monti as Prime Minster or of  offering him the more prestigious position of  President of the Republic at the expiration of Giorgio Napolitano’s mandate.

This would be the worst possible outcome for  the solution of the never-ending Italian crisis, with Parliament and Government  becoming fortified citadels in which the people who have brought about the  ruin of Italy will continue to lead privileged lives, feigning   non-existent rivalries, and leaving  an even greater  force of action to ever more dangerous forms of populism.

Carlo Ungaro

Rome, Italy

(The author of this submission, Ambassador Carlo Ungaro, is a former – now retired – senior Italian diplomatic officer)

Is Afghanistan doomed as a "Failed State"?

(Article published by Oped News on October 2, 2012)

Rome, Italy, October 1, 2012

The very term “failed state” evokes a sense of hopelessness and despair, and should therefore be used as sparingly as possible.

Some years ago, Liberia was considered the quintessential failed state, but it pulled itself back, thanks, in very great part, to the emergence of political figures with charisma determination and honesty, and also to the indispensable support of the International Community.

Between 2001 and 2004, I was closely involved with Somalia, then also considered a failed state. Some eight years on, however, it seems to have made little progress in emerging from that awkward limbo.

But what is the real meaning of the term, or, to put it differently, what precisely is needed for a Nation to qualify for that dubious title? Should Afghanistan be considered such? is the country that one remembers and has deeply loved irredeemably destined to disappear from the international scene, or  does Afghanistan, now nearing the end of another chapter in its tragic Odyssey still have the will, the strength and the capacity to return, as an equal partner, into the society of Nations?

I remember Afghanistan in the 1970’s as one of the poorest countries in the world. Yet it proudly and capably fulfilled its role as a neutral buffer between empires,  a role inherited from the days of the “Great Game” but still valid in those of the Cold War. Wise governance was bringing about a slow but steady improvement in the quality of life, particularly for women, and this was especially true during the short-lived  republican period that followed the bloodless coup which had overthrown the Monarchy in 1973.

Two lengthy and brutal foreign invasions, interrupted by years of particularly violent civil war would suffice to bring any human social structure to its knees, and would have succeeded to do so in Afghanistan if it weren't for the extraordinary pride, resilience and courage of the Afghan people (I refer to both men and women) and their refusal, over  the past centuries, to submit to outside domination, even in the presence of a foreign-imposed government. This happened in the days of Shah Shujah Durrani, during the 1840’s, it has repeated itself since, and could well determine events in that obscure future when the foreign troops now occupying Afghanistan will presumably have left.

The information, fragmentary as it is, that this land, once considered hopelessly condemned to perennial poverty  might actually possess considerable mineral wealth does not necessarily constitute a blessing. If true it would greatly complicate matters, as the already ruthless quest for power will receive support and backing from foreign sources the interests of which will, at best, coincide only with those of a very small minority of the power structure. All this risks being  presented in an old fashioned ideological form, a post-Cold War resurrection of Manichean dualism, in which the presumably libertarian forces of “free market” capitalism will attempt to wrest power from the more  “socialist” oriented ones, in the name of a questionable version of Democracy.

Recent history leaves little room for optimism, and the feeling prevails that any National Government structure left behind by the occupying forces  will give way to a repetition – or perhaps a resumption – of the preceding civil war, with ultimate results  that are impossible to foresee, considering the additional burden of a much wider overt or covert international involvement, precisely because of the riches presumably hidden in this inhospitable soil.

Time is really very short, and one does not read or hear of any intention, on the part of the NATO Allies, to review their negotiating stance in order to take these new factors into due account.

In my experience, Afghans are skilful negotiators, often a step ahead of their interlocutors. It would seem worthwhile testing the responses to ideas along the lines of sharing not only political but also economic power, in a type of regionally oriented framework which, by opening up new, entirely legitimate vistas, could also diminish the constant threat posed by the exportation of opium to the  outside world through neighbouring countries.

The people of Afghanistan have suffered great privations, through no fault of their own and surely deserve a better fate than to be left again at the mercy of “War Lords”, this time even more powerful because of possible international backing and support.

The ultimate answer to Afghanistan’s problems is, or at least should be, in the hands of the Afghans, and should not be imposed by outside forces. The Country certainly possesses the required human resources, and its people have the ability and the will to reach solutions on their own, but are in need of benevolent, intelligent, non violent guidance and support from the International Community.

Those who love Afghanistan can only hope, and continue hoping until hope creates.

Carlo Ungaro

(The author of this submission, Ambassador Carlo Ungaro, is a retired Italian senior Diplomatic  officer, who has spent sixteen years of his life in Afghanistan, the last two as Political Adviser to the Italian-led ISAF contingent in Herat)

The Perception of terrorism and the need for rational responses

This Article was published by Oped News on September 17, 2012

Rome, September 12 2012

The recurrence of September 11 has unleashed a  flood of comments,  some more understandable and cogent than others, but for the greater part predictable, pugnacious  and inconclusive.  This  could therefore be a favourable moment in which   to analyze the phenomenon, in a feeble attempt to stem the  flow of totally irrational anti-Islamic feeling  which has gained a firm foothold in much of the Western world – particularly, of course, the United States.

The tragic events of Benghazi were  expertly timed, to give a further boost to the fully reasonable emotional aspect of the world’s response to what is seen as the  enduring “terrorist threat”. And yet, the greatest  threat consists precisely in an oversimplification of the problem, which  tends to ignore, or at least to gloss over, some cold, hard political facts which need to be taken into consideration.

The formal identification of yet another  “terrorist” group in Pakistan a few days ago has been accepted obediently  by the major NATO allies, and reported, with  little critical analysis by the mainstream international press.

There is a disturbing superficiality in the way terrorism is perceived and presented by the  media. The same applies to the  practically unanimous  consensus on the labelling of some groups or activities as “terrorist”, with no attempt to understand their motivations.  

The inappropriately  coined  term “war on terror” (briefly labelled “crusade” before slightly wiser counsels prevailed) has always appeared as destined primarily to domestic audiences  with the secondary, but by no means unpredictable, or unwelcome, effect of creating the impression that some religious or ethnic groups are potential terrorists, and, hence potential enemies. The resulting wave of Islamophobia, particularly  in the United States and in the United Kingdom, appears to  be growing, and no steps are visibly taken to   bring it under control, or, at least, formally to distance governing circles from  an attitude which  at times encourages mass hysteria..

It may appear otiose or redundant to point out that the term “terrorism” has been in use for well over a century and that  people in occupied or oppressed areas  have, throughout history, used  tactics, against the oppressor, which today would be labelled “terrorist”.

It is particularly important to remember that the misleading term “Islamic Terrorism” is unique to our time. The IRA, or ETA activists were never labelled “Catholic Terrorists”, and yet many of them were devout Church-goers, and probably partook of the Holy Sacraments whenever possible.

It would appear that, as the strength of nations develops, so does their feeling of insecurity, and, as a result, the militarily  stronger Countries (The United States and the United Kingdom come to mind) deeply feel the need  of identifying an “enemy” who deserves no quarter and who is out to destroy the State’s very foundations. Every Empire has its version of “Cartago Delenda Est”, and the phenomenon was  acutely analysed in Orwell's “1984”. During the Cold War, this “enemy”  was easy to identify, and anti-Communist or anti-Soviet posturing was  easy, effective,  risk-free and countered by  similar rhetoric from the other side. The rather sudden and unexpected fall of the Berlin Wall, and the dismembering  of the Soviet Union, however,  created great confusion as “the enemy” seemed to dissolve into thin air. The principal propounders of bellicose slogans and  indignantly righteous attitudes must have felt as if, walking in the dark, they had missed the last step.

The quest for a new face to label as “Public Enemy Number1” was made  easier by events  such as the Lockerbie tragedy: Here, presented, as it were, on a silver platter, was a reason to raise  hysterical reaction, as long as no mention was made of the events which, perhaps, at least partly inspired the perpetrators of this horrible crime, such as the unjustified, unexplained and, above all, unpunished   shooting down of a scheduled Iran Air civilian flight in the Persian Gulf some weeks prior to the Lockerbie event. So the attention was shifted, in the space of  very few months, from “Communists” to “Islamic Terrorists”, and, finally, to “Islam”. The necessary language adjustments were made, and the propaganda machine was in full efficiency well before  the  S.S. Cole incident, the bombings of the U.S. Embassies in Nairobi and Dar Es Salaam, and, of course, the immense tragedy of September 11 2001.

The subsequent disasters caused by a cynically incompetent conduct of the   “war on terror” need not be stressed,  and it can suffice to say that  not only was the main objective unfulfilled, but  terrorist bases were created where none had existed before.

It would be a specious exercise to  search for historic parallels, but even  a superficial glance at more recent events makes it  easy to notice how the  quality of being a terrorist resides very much in  the perception of others. Yesterday’s terrorists often  become the heroes and inspirators of a new order, and at times end up  facing the earlier oppressors, on a footing of parity, in the course of  international negotiations.

To my knowledge,  a “war on terrorism” has never been won,  but, in the long run, wherever there have been waves of perceived “terrorism”, the conflict has been more often than not decided in favour of the cause defended by the   “terrorists” – Enough to  mention Partisan or Resistance movements in the Soviet Union, in Greece, in the Balkans, in France, in Italy,  in Libya, in Abyssinia and, in the course of time, in many other nations subject to colonial rule, domestic oppression or foreign occupation.

The words that precede are not an attempt to defend terrorism, but rather to explain the phenomenon in an historical context. In Afghanistan I was unfortunate enough to witness the birth of a “terrorist mentality” among people who, until then, had not indulged in terrorist activity, but who obviously felt that no other means  of reaction was left  to them. This very probably holds true for  many – perhaps not all – of the  allegedly “terrorist” organisations active today, just as it held true – for example – in South Africa when Nelson Mandela, now  a justly respected elder statesman, was vilified in most of the “free world” as a “Communist inspired terrorist leader”.

These are points on which serious reflection is called for, rather than  emotional, pavlovian rhetorical responses,  or, worse, retaliatory attacks which  can only drive a growing number of young people  in the arms of the targeted organizations.

Carlo Ungaro

The author of this submission, Ambassador Carlo Ungaro is a senior Italian Diplomatic Officer, now retired. He has spent many years in Central Asia and especially Afghanistan, lastly as Political Adviser to the Italian led ISAF contingent in Herat (Afghanistan)

IS ROME STILL THE "ETERNAL CITY"?

(Article Published by  Oped News on September 10, 2012)

Rome. September 10. 2012

“I hate Barocco!

 I hate Scirocco!

 I hate Rome!”.

So went a  little doggerel, very popular in Italy five or six decades ago. It was repeated, “ad nauseam” by young, heavily brilliantined, Roman boys who  thus  hoped to demonstrate their cosmopolitan nature, while, of course,   their vey parochialism was being revealed by their belief  that  they were being inscrutably clever.

There are, in fact, moments when, in the more “modern” part of Rome – i.e. the so called “Roma Barocca” of the Popes, of Borromini, Bernini, Michelangelo and of other such gigantic  figures –  that grandiose, yet wonderfully harmonious stile can appear oppressive, especially, perhaps, in the days of the hot, humid African wind called “Scirocco”.

 A short walk away is an older, perhaps even more captivating part of the City,  where the Pantheon rests, perfectly at  ease in spite of its great age, in that Fifteenth and Sixteenth century Rome  which is in many ways more enchanting, albeit less spectacular.

It is, however, precisely   the “newer” part of Rome, the reign of the “Barocco”, which brings home the fact that this, indeed, has always been and still is the “Eternal City”. The appellation of “Roma Caput Mundi” was applicable for many centuries after the Roman Empire had formally ceased to exist and even after the end of the Holy Roman Empire (1805). Being the “World's Capital” for  over twenty five centuries could not fail to leave its mark, and this  has attracted the cream of the world’s  political and cultural life  through the ages, particularly in the course of the past  five hundred years or so, down to the present day.

It is enough to spend some time at the Caffè Greco (often patronized by Hans Christian Andersen), at the beginning of Via Condotti, and to reflect that, within a radius of about a quarter of a mile there lies more history – visible, living history – than most other cities can offer in their entirety.

Keats lived in nearby Piazza di Spagna, while further up the erroneously labelled “Spanish Steps”  lies Villa Medici, site of the French Academy since 1803,  where Hector Berlioz received the greatest disappointment of his life by not being awarded the coveted “Prix de Rome”.

In the other direction, on the Via del Corso, is the apartment where Goethe spent some years of his life, and following this, which for centuries was Rome’s principal avenue, a very short walk leads to the incredibly beautiful Piazza del Popolo in which, through the  main gateway to Rome, the Porta del Popolo,  many made their triumphal entry, as conquerors, liberators or guests. Among these – as we are reminded by an inscription on the main gateway  -  was Queen Christina of Sweden,  a Catholic convert  in self imposed exile, who  was to spend the last thirty years of her  life in Rome, a popular and  equivocal figure, being at the same time a self-avowed  lesbian  and carrying on a long, tempestuous and very public affair with one of  Rome’s most prominent Cardinals..

At the other end of the avenue lies the Capitoline hill, the seat of Imperial power, ,from which Gibbon viewed  the ruins of the  Forum,  getting the inspiration to write one of the most beautiful and readable history  books ever written, “The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire”.

The rivalry between the sculptors and architects Bernini and Borromini (who hailed from Switzerland) is visible throughout, and the source of stories, some true,  others well-invented, still told with relish by those who love the city. Their works still constitute some of the most beautiful sites the city has to offer, from Piazza Navona to the majestic colonnade adorning the  access to St. Peter’s basilica.

Almost every street name in Rome evokes a slice of ancient, medieval, Renaissance or modern history: one of the main shopping avenues is named after Cola di Rienzo, a man of humble origins, whose meteoric rise to fame and leadership in the fourteenth century, seemed destined, for a while, to change the history of the entire Italian peninsula. He called himself a “Tribune” and  had  huge popular support, only to be finally  unseated and killed by those very masses who had hailed him as a saviour.

One intriguing aspect of Rome  lies in the “intimate” or “cosy” nature of its beauty. There are few of the impressive vistas offered by Paris or London, nor does one find the unique, contagious, intellectual ferment typical of Berlin.  Yet one feels that this has long been the world’s capital, or one of the world's capitals,  and its beauty lies in stupendous corners,  narrow streets, ancient ruins, the fountains and of course the enormous number of Churches and monuments.

Also the Romans, in spite of  the vast number  of new generations, appear to have retained their intriguing combination of placid indolence and fiery temperament. It is not difficult to imagine them chasing a Pope into exile,  murdering a tyrant, assassinating the Emperor’s emissaries, only to return to the warmth of the family to enjoy a steaming plate of “maccheroni  al cacio e pepe”, washed down with copious draughts of the white, deceptively light  “vino dei Castelli”.

Walking through Rome one is indeed surrounded by illustrious ghosts, and once one gets that feeling one understands that Rome is still “Caput Mundi” and, indeed, fully deserves its title as the “Eternal City”

Carlo Ungaro

Political Stability in Italy: A Contradiction in terms?

Rome, September 6, 2012

(Article published by Oped News on September 9, 2012)

If bookmakers abounded in Rome as they do in London,  bets could easily be placed on the duration of the present Italian “technical” Government, and on the probable date of the  next general elections – whether as early as November, or in the Spring, when the  Parliament’s  mandate comes to its  end.

Even the most daring of bookmakers, however,  would hesitate to hazard opening a book on the outcome of these elections, or, even more so, on Italy’s political future.

It is  believed  that William Shakespeare  got  ideas, settings and characters for  his Italian based plays in the course of one or more visits to Italy. If so, also the expression “all the world is a stage” may well have had  the same origin, for Italians, like few other people,  freely display their histrionic prowess  in all phases of everyday life,  and this trait, which could not have escaped  the Bard’s notice, is particularly evident in Italy’s political life.

Those who fail to take this into account often label Italian political events as “paradoxical”, where, in reality  they follow a totally logical  path, emphasizing  the  permanent, and widening gap  between  perceptions and reality, characteristic of   the Italian political scene.

From the immediate post war years until the end of what Italians inaccurately call “the First Republic” (circa 1994),   leading political commentators repeatedly described Italy, often in  ominous tones,  as the epitome of “political instability”. It was very difficult, at the time,  to explain that in Italy reality was then, as, indeed, it is  now, very much different from appearances, and that the much criticised political system  had a stability of its own, which, instead, has been lacking over the past twenty years or so..

It is true that,  in a period spanning just under five decades, dozens of governments were formed and fell, sometimes after only days in office, while premature elections – held  before the end of the  Constitutionally decreed parliamentary mandate - were  the rule rather than the exception.

A similar situation had obtained in France during the short-lived Fourth Republic, but General de Gaulle had had  the  strength and the charisma to put  and  end to this and the  “Fifth Republic” he bequeathed to the Nation  guaranteed  decades of political stability without sacrificing democratic principles.

An Italian version of de Gaulle has never appeared although some of the post-war  leaders  have posed as  their country’s saviours: one of these – Bettino Craxi – ended up in luxurious self-imposed exile in  Hammamet as a fugitive from justice after heading the most corrupt – but also the most “stable” – Italian Government  in the  decades between  the birth of the Republic (1948) and his political  downfall (1992).

There, in fact, lies the apparent paradox, for it was precisely in those seemingly trouble-free years that the seeds were sown for the rise of the so-called “Second Republic” the un-mourned demise of which  now seems imminent, and which has been the theatre of the greatest “instability” in the country’s recent history..  

The collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent, not totally unrelated,  cataclysm which shook the foundations  of the Italian Republic, brought about a dramatic ending to a system under which, after all, in spite of its perceived “instability”, the country had prospered, Democracy had  flourished, the quality of life had become one of the  most envied in Europe and Italian style and design  were known and appreciated the world over. Today’s Italy, by contrast, has known real, tangible instability and economic decay over the past two decades, even though – with some exceptions – Governments lasted out their full mandate with  large majorities  in Parliament. The instability – invisible to all but the most jaundiced eye – lay (and still lies) in the cynical, irresponsible and ultimately  dangerous infighting which took up all of the governing Parties’ energies, and the ultimate result was the last Berlusconi-led  government (his fourth stint as Prime Minister, for a  total of 3340 days in office), largely responsible for Italy’s present situation.

The timing of Italy’s  next general election is actually not as important as it could have appeared some weeks ago, and  the  political leaders, as well as the voting public will be as unprepared for them next Spring as they would be in November. Their outcome, instead will be of fundamental weight in determining the country’s destiny for the coming years.

The trend, which is being pursued rather clumsily,  with little of the classic Italian touch of subtlety, seems to indicate that, no matter what the outcome of the elections, the  more powerful political  parties  will attempt to band together into an unruly “moderate”, Catholic-led centrist coalition, which would have a very good chance of lasting out the entire Legislature.  There is even cautious talk of a role for Professor Monti, either as head of the Government or as President of the Republic.

This solution is certainly not the most desirable one, for, while it would certainly bring apparent  stability  to the Italian political scene, it  could very well  reveal itself as a severe blow to the democratic process in Italy. In this way, the endemic volatility of the system would be allowed to fester, under a  deceptive cloak of respectable solidity, and the electorate’s confidence in the political setup – including, of course, the Government – would risk growing to  a dangerous level.

Carlo Ungaro

The author of this submission, Ambassador Carlo Ungaro, is a retired Senior Italian Diplomatic Officer

NATO Forces in Afghanistan: The Final Curtain Call?

(This article was published by Oped News on Sept 2, 2012, and was written before I learned of the suspension of training procedure for new recruits)

As the U.S. and NATO approach the final curtain call in Afghanistan,  their doomed venture is gradually  fading out of the media. Meanwhile, however, scores of people, in Afghanistan and Pakistan, are still being killed, either by Drones, by military action or by “terrorist attacks”. We are invariably told that all those killed by NATO actions were “militants”, or, perhaps, “suspected militants”, but never “civilians”, for even the term “collateral damage” is no longer being used. The fact that also a small but steady number of allied military personnel  are still dying is more or less ignored, apart from brief emotional outbursts in the  opinion of their respective native country. It is seldom pointed out that most of these deaths indicate the existence of staggering gaps in the preparation of a credible Afghan security apparatus, which ostensibly should  take over only a few months from now. Some publicity – but rather subdued in tone – was given to the fact that the number of U.S, dead has reached 2000, while  no body counts regarding the   enemy  seem to be available.

A small number of  commentators were quick to point out the initial  errors committed in a hastily prepared, strategically flawed and morally indefensible operation meant  essentially to impress   domestic audiences. As time went on, the sequence of strategic, political and psychological errors became  increasingly evident even to some of the traditionally “obedient” mainstream international media, while those who had the dubious  privilege of being physically close to the events could easily observe how the leaders of the operation themselves were swiftly becoming victims of their own propaganda.

As the drumbeat of wilfully misleading slogans rolled on, and words of advice were either scorned or ignored, the inevitability of disaster loomed ever closer, and yet no concrete, credible steps were taken to modify  the situation and to give – albeit belatedly – an aura of credibility and legitimacy  to the foreign presence on Afghan soil.

At this stage Afghanistan’s future appears to be a matter of contention among three different entities, none of which offer great hope.

One the one hand, of course,  the  foreign military forces are still on the scene, and in considerable numbers. There has never, however, been a coherent political agenda  for them, and now all energies  appear directed at hastening  their departure. These are the forces,  it has to be remembered, who repeatedly assured world public opinion that the enemy was “on the run”.

In the course of the long occupation –  perhaps the longest in post-colonial history – one of the most important tasks  for the NATO forces and their civilian  collaborators was to have been “reconstruction” (hence the creation of several “PRT’s” or “Provincial Reconstruction Teams”,  sagely distributed throughout the Afghan territory). There have been  some very modest, yet  encouraging successes on a local level, but  the formation and training of Afghan  military, police and security forces  has  had lamentable  results, and there will lie the  core of most future problems.

The Afghan Government certainly has  a vital role to fulfil, and there can be no doubt of the fact that a number of Afghans – men and women – have rallied in good faith to serve their country, either in Parliament or in public positions which have often put them at risk. Legitimate doubts can be expressed, however, on the  capacity, the competence or even the real political will of Afghan ruling political forces to undertake  their  difficult and potentially dangerous mission, once  the foreign military presence will no longer be there to give them protection and assistance. There is ample and justified reason to worry about the safety  of those – particularly women - who have attempted to serve their Country, for they will be considered  as “collaborators” by future administrations.

The third actor, of course, is the “Insurgency”. Who the insurgents really are, whom do they represent and  what are their real numbers are all unanswerable questions. It would be much  more encouraging if a real insurgent force could be identified, with  credible leadership from whom, even at this late stage,  specific guarantees could be asked for the future.

As things appear to stand now,  the alternatives to a renewed civil war in Afghanistan are rapidly diminishing,  and  the allied efforts should  concentrate on attempts either to prevent this outcome or to limit its  deadly results, rather than on the elimination of presumed “militant” groups in Pakistan by actions which, in the long run, can only encourage the potential destabilization of what used to be an important ally.

For years, now, it has been evident that urgent, audacious solutions should have been sought in the attempt, if not to solve, at least to alleviate the epochal problems which Afghanistan will be facing in the near future. International leaders, however, never appeared willing or capable of going beyond the repetition of well-worn shibboleths about the need to guarantee  a democratic future for the country, while still remaining anchored to the  principles  espoused in a distant  Convention on Afghanistan held in Bonn in 2001. It is probably too late now – time is not “running out”, for it has “run out” years ago – but surely  it would  worth attempting  a new  approach, one that actually takes local realities, not all negative, indeed, sometimes encouraging, into due account.

Somalia's Transition: A Never Ending Story

(This article was published by Oped News on August 31, 2012

Rome, August 28, 2012

In November 2001, as newly appointed head of the Italian Diplomatic Delegation for Somalia, in Nairobi, I began a very active participation in a Peace Conference which was designed to complete Somalia’s transition to stable, credible and internationally recognized  Government. 

This lengthy and complicated peace progress, which lasted well into the year 2004, was fatally marred, in my view, by some hasty decisions taken at its very conclusion. These took little account of the lengthy and patient  negotiations which  had preceded them and  possibly were dictated by  funding problems, as well as strong pressure by the Ethiopian Government, eager to reach a conclusion  seen as favourable to Ethiopian interests. The  end result, therefore, appeared to me, already then, as fundamentally flawed, and unlikely to bring more than a temporary respite to the political turmoil in Somalia.

Even so, it is disheartening to realise that all those months of  careful, finely-balanced talks, with their dramatic and at times highly emotional interludes, would end up with the current  situation, in which, eight years on, little significant  political progress is visible.

 Most commentators, quite commendably, are attempting  to put a brave, optimistic face on this latest  act in the Somali drama, but grounds for optimism appear scant and weak, and it is difficult to see what  this  new “Transitional Federal Government” will be able to achieve, outside of the  areas it  can control.  It is certainly worth considering the eloquent  fact that the  election of the new President, by a carefully balanced Parliament  takes place in the Mogadishu airport, under heavy guard  by foreign troops, and not, as would be expected, in the beleaguered Capital itself.

When the Nairobi Conference began,   Somalia already had  a “Transitional National Government”, the result of intense previous negotiations in neighbouring Djibouti, which, however, was viewed with suspicion and hostility by  some powers and was therefore unable to gain the international recognition it aspired to.

Somalia has traditionally been a difficult land, hard to govern because of its  clan structure. Italian and British explorers found this in the course of their colonial experience there, and, in their dealings with Abdullah Hassan, known as the “Mad Mullah”, in the early years of the last century. It is interesting to note that a memorial to the “Mad Mullah” exists in Mogadishu.

The recent, unexpected, death of Ethiopian Prime Minster Meles Zenawi will certainly further complicate the situation. The negative developments within Somalia, in the past  two decades, owed a lot to Zenawi’s obsessive  interest in being the prime mover of events there. He was among the first  of the U.S. (and the “West’s”) “client” leaders to understand that the path to continued support no longer lay  in raising the spectre of Communism, but rather the spectre of “Islamic extremism”. And it is certain that the tragic events of September 11, 2001, helped him a great deal in his endeavour to  sow an atmosphere of  unreasoning panic directed against  Somali leaders,  many of whom, in spite of their past as “war-lords”, appeared to be involved in an effort to  create, if not peaceful unity, at least  a non violent coexistence among clans and power structures. His close ties with the Americans continued to this day, and some of the “drones” used against Islamic groups in Somalia are stationed in Ethiopia. It is probably no coincidence that the “electoral process” in Mogadishu  seemed to stop in its tracks at the news of  the Ethiopian leader’s  death.

It is not without  a strong feeling of regret that one feels compelled to view  potential future developments in Somalia – and in the Horn of Africa – with some pessimism and apprehension. Large sectors of Somali civil society – and particularly the women of Somalia – have  put a great deal of effort and enthusiasm, sometimes very bravely,  in the endeavour to  find a solution, but the country appears destined to remain a pawn in the hands of outside interests.

The basic questions,  that needs to be considered both by the more responsible Somalis and by those foreigners who have the country’s welfare at heart, concerns the  realistic possibility of  actually finding a  solution in Somalia along the lines proposed up to now. The examples of  neighbouring Somaliland and, to a large extent, of the very autonomous state of Puntland, appear to indicate that, perhaps, greater consideration should be given to the fact that “self government” in Somalia seems to work best in more reduced geographic areas, where the predominance of one clan can ensure acceptance of a  leader who can then, on a footing of parity, establish working relationships with other leaders in what is, perhaps mistakenly, considered a necessarily unified  geo-political entity, or a potential “Nation State”.

The vast majority of Somalis, whether in their own land of abroad, show a deep love and loyalty to their country, and this is an element  that has to be kept into account: Somalia  is, perhaps rightly, seen as the quintessential example of a “Failed State”, but  its people deserve  better, and fresh, unprejudiced thought needs to be dedicated to the problem..

INDIA ON MY MIND

Rome. August 20. 2012

 A reminiscence of India’s independence

On August 15, India celebrated  the sixty-fifth anniversary of its independence. Much has been  written about India  both in current and historical terms, but I feel  I would like to add my comment as one who actually was there in 1947, for I was born and went to school in Lahore (then  in British India), and spent the first ten years of my life in Afghanistan with frequent  trips  across the Khyber Pass.

 In the dark pre-dawn hours of a cold  February morning of 1947,  a large American military truck picked my family up in Kabul for the first leg of an epochal move, back to Europe (the first time for me) after the World War.

I, of course, was both thrilled and awed, for this meant  goodbye forever to those mountains which had towered over me all my life. It is strange that, since then, I have had the chance to say “goodbye forever” to those same mountains  on two further occasions (1973 and 2007).

But, essentially I was thrilled, because I had always dreamt of riding in a Jeep and I had  developed an inordinate admiration for the Americans also perhaps due, I can’t say in what measure, to the Head of Mission’s daughter – an “older woman” to me: she must have been  perhaps eighteen – who, when she walked,  wiggled a part of her anatomy which I hadn’t known, till then, could be wiggled at all. I was riveted  by the spectacle. Perhaps it was my first glimpse of “the American Dream”.

The voyage had just begun and, in Peshawar, then a pleasant frontier town, I had learned the  astounding fact: that the sign “The Management reserves the right of admission” on the hotel restaurant door was the  indirect, typically hypocritical English way of saying “no Indians”. I had not yet read E.M. Forster, but this was really “A Passage to India” in the flesh.

There was a long – three or four day – train journey ahead, to reach Bombay, either by the “Frontier Mail”, my favourite, or the “Bombay  Express” which, to me, sounded like a sissy name. Of course, with my luck, we ended up taking the latter.

Indian trains then were probably built on a nineteenth century model, or, perhaps, had been designed specifically for the Empire. Each compartment was separate, with no communicating  corridor, and with  doors giving directly to the platform. There were compartments reserved for women  and others of varying size, some   “public”, others “private”.

Ours was a family size compartment, rather large, with two sofa-beds. two upper berth bunks, a bathroom, and a sort of  living space with a table and some chairs, all firmly riveted to the floor. A totally ineffectual fan flapped lazily from the ceiling.

The organisation was incredible: as the train approached a particular station, towards dinner-time, my parents  would “dress for dinner” (i.e. black tie  and evening dress), and. when the train stopped, they would  disembark to go to the restaurant car. They were immediately replaced by a kindly,  “Aja”, an Indian nanny, who also brought a tray of food for the children – no curries, only delicious dhal – made the beds and sat with us until the next station, when the diners would return and she would depart with the empty dishes.

We have forgotten that trains, in those days, really did go “clickety-clack”, that  there was a constant swaying motion and that the passage over railway points would shake passengers to the bone: I loved all this, because it made me feel the joy of  speed (who knows? Maybe even 50 mph!) and certainly did not disturb my sleep.

Even to a child. it was obvious that my parents felt apprehension at travelling through Punjab, which had been the scene of rioting and mass killings, especially at the  Amritsar railway station,  through which we were due to pass. Tensions were still manifestly high at the station and the train was  practically  assaulted by  panic-stricken Hindu families, who obviously wanted  to get as far away as possible from the future Pakistan (Identical scenes, albeit in reverse, were taking place with trains going towards the North West). Such was the haste of these families that, right in front of  our compartment window, a milk bottle fell out of a bundle and cracked, spilling the contents on the platform. The scene that followed disturbed me greatly, and still does,  sixty-five years on.  When all had boarded, the doors had clanged shut and the train was beginning to move on, I saw  an “Untouchable” – a “Sweeper” – who approached the pool of white milk on the black platform floor, and with his bare hands scooped up what he could into an  old  tin, I suppose to help feed the family.

India has always been close to me, and I already realised then that  this was an entire world and not a “country” or a “state”. It took me a while to assimilate the fact of “partition”, because,  in earlier years, “my” India had been  the Punjab, between Amritsar and Lahore, very close geographically, but now separated by an international border.

The social and political tension and the constant  threat of  sudden violence  were evident even to me, a child of ten, and yet when  the British troopship to which we had been assigned left the port of Bombay,  I really felt pain at the idea of leaving, not knowing, of course, that I would be back in  times which were more tranquil, in spite of the Indo-Pakistan war  of 1971.

ALL EYES ON GREECE AND SPAIN, BUT IS ITALY THE REAL "SICK MAN OF EUROPE"?

Rome, August 8, 2012

In the course of this long, hot, and  extremely tense summer,  pessimism and hopelessness are gaining momentum on the Italian political scene, as the electorate’s honeymoon –  at times encouraging, but never easy – with Professor Monti’s  “Technical Government” appears to be coming to a premature and largely disappointing end.

Europeans,  and Italians are no exception, often appear as  unwitting victims of their history. In Italy, political chaos has been a constant reality from the early years of the Holy Roman Empire to this day, and the trend shows no sign of abating.

 From the  Teutonic  Caesars down to Mussolini and the post-war Italian governments, many of those whose ambition it was to govern the Italian people came to the conclusion that the task was impossible, or as Mussolini himself allegedly said, “useless”.

When Mario Monti took over as Prime Minister in November of last year, the situation appeared  absolutely desperate. A corrupt and inefficient Government had been unable – some  actually thought “unwilling” – to face the immense tasks which appeared essential to bring Italy back on track, and  it was forced to resign after some  extremely deft manoeuvring on the part of the President of the Republic, Giorgio Napolitano. For a while, the illusion was created that the “Technical Government”, having, figuratively speaking, bludgeoned the main  political parties into  acquiescence, would actually achieve  its very ambitious but essential goals. The inescapably entropic nature of the Italian political process however soon emerged, and, at this stage, although the  parties  forming the massive majority supporting the Government keep swearing  formidable oaths of loyalty, it is clear that all the leaders, even as they  speak in solemn tones about the need for stability, are, in reality, nudging and winking at one another, in a desperate attempt to emerge from this experience with the least possible damage.

Professor Monti and his Government are not tied to specific political interests and, therefore,  appear to have  a greater freedom of choice in the implementation of unpopular programmes. The same, however, cannot be said of the three major  parties who have given their support to the government, and without  the consent of which measures could not be turned into laws. In recent weeks  the feeling has taken hold that this  experimental government is being caught up in the traditional Italian political quagmire, and that even the public  behaviour of the Prime Minister, considered blameless until now, is adapting to the devious tactics practiced by  his predecessors. On their part, the political parties  who support his government are giving signs of  nervousness and seem to be returning to their  traditional, negative  habits, neglecting to take  into account the growing ill-feeling and mistrust of  large sectors of Italian opinion. .

It would be tedious, and of no immediate interest, to enumerate or attempt to describe the various phases of  rising  disillusionment on the part of the Italian electorate, or the sometimes farcical, often irresponsible posturing of the parties. It has to be said, however, to their partial exculpation, that they are facing epochal problems of survival  in the presence of  a growingly indifferent, sceptical and critical public.

It is  amazing that, in a country which  until recently considered an 80% turnout at elections as disappointing, reliable polls show that about 35% of the electorate  appear inclined not to vote at all, while about 20% are divided between those who are “undecided” or who state that they will cast a blank or invalid ballot. Even the announced return of Mr. Berlusconi on the political scene has caused scarcely a ripple in the  opinion polls, and this could indicate that  he might be losing what was left of  that peculiar charisma which allowed him to remain in power for the best part of the past twenty years.

The parties  who support the Government, having formed what people call “The Odd Majority”, face a truly fundamental dilemma. As the Government is forced to  adopt  measures  which meet growing hostility on the part of the general public, they sense  a further decline in their popularity, and  feel a restless urge to put an end to this anomalous situation, withdraw their support to the Government, and  force the President to call early elections, to  be held, possibly, in early November. A growing number of influential  political figures are urging their respective parties in this sense, because they feel that the passage of time operates in favour of the more populist opposition groups or movements, who would present themselves to the electorate untainted, as it were, by the Government’s unpopular  decisions.

The situation, however, is complicated by the state of disarray  which has devastated  the  majority party, led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, and which, according to recent polls, would  have difficulty reaching  20% of the vote. The opposition Democratic Party, though in a more favourable position, has to cope with a number of problems, some of which  appear of a subtlety so Machiavellian to leave even  the best informed political analysts quite visibly puzzled . Nor can the traditional rivalry  between its  Catholic and secular  components be ignored, and the Catholics  at times  seem ready to abandon ship and join the Centrist party which, although small, is in a King-making position and  is forging ever closer ties with the Catholic Church.

 The better known leaders, on all sides of the spectrum, keep appearing, albeit more subdued than  before, on the innumerable television “talk-shows” which, in earlier days, were their favourite stage from which to propound their ideas. They, however, have quite obviously lost a great deal of their bluster and don’t  go much beyond reaffirming their “full confidence” in the wisdom of the electorate. What will happen is anybody’s guess, also because all the parties vow that they will remain loyal to the Government until next Spring and that, in any case, the present electoral Law is unsatisfactory and needs to be changed. Fears prevail, however,  that either the Law will not be altered (for, in reality, it suits those very leaders who claim that it needs to be changed), or that it will be modified into something even worse, designed to  handicap those opposition  parties which are the sole beneficiaries from this intricate state of affairs.

The Month of August will be decisive, and much will depend on the  direction taken by the International financial and economic crisis. In the present circumstances, however, the future does not bode well for Italy, and even the close ties  forged between Monti and the German political leadership seem to be weakening, thus leaving him in a dangerously isolated position.

Most of the responsible commentators seem to agree that  elections held before the end of the Government’s mandate would probably have a disastrous effect, but there are signs that this solution may well  turn out to be inevitable.

The politicians, meanwhile, keep playing their old games, in the style of the traditional Italian “Commedia dell’Arte”, bashing one another with large clubs, only to emerge smiling and pose for group photographs. They appear, however, to be only dimly aware that they are playing to a thinning house.  Many feel that, as the clown Canio exclaims at the closing of Leoncavallo’s Opera “I Pagliacci”, for them, at least, “La commedia è finita” (The show is over).

Carlo Ungaro

The Author of this submission is a retired Italian Diplomatic Officer

VATICAN SCANDALS

Rome, June 12 2012

Vatican Scandals: a never-ending story

International events move fast, and it is difficult for public attention to remain fixed on a particular event, no matter how grave or dramatic. And yet the recent Vatican Saga, a not unfamiliar story of corruption, scandal, potential violence and political infighting does deserve a closer look, if nothing else for its  possible developments.

Thanks to centuries of experience, the people of Rome have developed tremendous insight – a veritable sixth sense – in guessing, ahead of time, when  there is trouble brewing on the  right bank of the Tiber, under the massive dome of St. Peter’s Basilica. The Holy See is usually able to control its image with the Italian public, thanks mainly to an extremely  respectful and  obsequious .media and press, as witnessed, for example  by the limited  publicity  the paedophilia scandal had in Italy even when it was front-page news elsewhere.

Events of the past few weeks, however, have shocked even the jaded and usually lethargic Roman public, and could indicate the existence of a  crisis situation in the Vatican with  many possible  future scenarios , which risks tarnishing the Vatican’s image, even in Italy.

The arrest of the Pope’s closest  lay collaborator (the Pope’s “Butler”, part of the official “family”), barely twenty-four hours after the abrupt dismissal of a respected Italian banker, who had been personally called upon by the Pope to  lend transparency and respectability to the “I.O.R.” (Istituto per le Opere Religiose – Institute  for Religious Operations), in a certain sense the Vatican’s Central Bank,  were, in themselves,  episodes dramatic enough to cause comment and unease. These events appeared even more remarkable because they occurred in the wake of the exhumation of the remains of a well known outlaw, who, some three decades ago,  had terrorised Rome as leader of the “Banda della Magliana” and who for  unexplained reasons was buried in a crypt in one of the  holiest  of the many Roman churches, and, therefore, in Vatican territory. It was rumoured that the exhumation could also shed light on another of the Vatican’s grim mysteries: the unsolved disappearance, in 1983, of e teen age girl, Emanuela Orlandi, daughter of a high Vatican official. To top all this off, a book has been published – becoming  an instant bestseller in Italy – which contains  the certified text of correspondence – often rancorous – among the Cardinals, and even some letters from the Pope himself. The arrest of the “Pope’s Butler” is connected to this event, even though  doubts are being expressed as to whether  he is actually being used as a scapegoat or whether others, including high ranking Church figures, have also been involved in the leaks.

 In discussing Vatican affairs it is always difficult to resist the temptation of delving deep into the past.  The roots of these recent  troublesome happenings, however, have to be traced back   over three decades, to the unexpected death of Pope John Paul I, in the winter of 1978, after one of the briefest pontificates in history (33 days).

This event, which in the public imagination is strongly  connected to the violent, and as yet mysterious  deaths, in the ensuing years, of two Italian bankers (Roberto Calvi in 1982  and Michele  Sindona in 1986) who were very close to Vatican finances has left its mark, to the point that,  in the public media, even some eminent “Vaticanists” have gone as far as expressing concern about the very survival and physical well-being of the two  figures concerned, as well as of the Pope himself, who could  be the target rather than the mover of this latest unrest  in that most secretive and reclusive State.

This last in a series of  scandals involving the Vatican and its financial institution, not rarely accused of hiding  money-laundering operations, raises  some legitimate questions on the  possible resignation of Benedict XVI (the last Pope to resign was Celestine V, in 1294) or other  likely upheavals in a  stagnant regime  which has been distancing itself from  the Roman Catholic faithful, especially outside of Italy.

In reality the Pope’s advanced age and failing health would probably make his resignation unnecessary, and all these recent events within the Vatican are  actually  tied in with a forthcoming Conclave, from which the next Pope will emerge. A fierce “electoral”  battle is going on, which will become  more and more vicious as the time approaches. The choice is severe: the Cardinals may bow to the weight of  authority carried by the present, mainly Italian, curia and choose to prolong the  highly conservative conduct of Vatican Affairs, or they could take as brave a step as their predecessors did in 1978 and opt for a more modern Church, for the implementation of basic decisions taken in the Ecumenical Council, Vatican II, and, above all, for  the choice of transparency (a Vatican version of “glasnost”) not only  in financial matters, but also in an attempt to  dispel  doubts and rumours about  the  closely interconnected “mysterious” happenings  mentioned  above (to which more can be added).

To all Vatican observers, it is evident that a battle has been engaged between the ageing, weakened Pope (who, unlike his predecessor, does not  arouse  much affection or loyalty), and his long time Secretary of State, Cardinal Bertone, who, in the eyes of the “progressives” embodies all the  potentially sinister and certainly negative traits of the more traditionalist, and mainly Italian, sector of the Curia.

The Holy See, by concentrating its attentions either on internal problems, such as the current power-struggle, or on increasingly abstruse and old-fashioned theological issues, as witnessed by the recent condemnation of American nuns, accused of being “modern” and “feminist” is  rapidly widening  the gap between  the Vatican and the active  Roman Catholic Church. This problem is visible even in Italy, where, for example, the numerous Catholic run Hospitals, Clinics and Sanatoriums are unable to find a sufficient number of nuns for their nursing staff, and are therefore  obliged to turn to professional paramedic personnel. It has also been pointed out that the waning number of young men  who  apply for the priesthood seem to be animated more by a sense of  entering upon a “career” than by true vocation to serve. In Spain the vocational crisis has induced the Bishops Conference to  emit publicity spots  on radio and television in the hope of attracting  some of the  very numerous unemployed young men, by offering  jobs which, though poorly paid, offer a guarantee of stability.

The Roman Catholic Church, as a confessional institution, is in no immediate danger, but the  Vatican power-structure seems at the risk of crumbling and becoming more and more fatuous as the years go by.

In this sense, therefore, the current spate of Vatican scandals deserves  careful analysis, if any sense has to be made out of a jumble of seemingly unrelated events.

According to the much quoted – and  not rarely accurate – prophecies of  the twelfth century Archbishop Malachi of Armagh (Ireland), the next Pope should be the last one, but this is an extreme consequence which seems most unlikely ……

Carlo Ungaro

(The author of this submission is a retired former senior Italian diplomatic officer)