THE CRISIS IN ITALY: WHO WILL REAP THE BENEFITS?

Rome, October 13, 2011

Who will benefit from the Italian crisis?


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Last May saw an unprecedented revolt by the Italian electorate, from which the governing majority emerged visibly humiliated and greatly weakened. The Opposition parties – excepting those at the fringe – did not benefit, and what emerged was a political void waiting to be filled. Some observers believed that this would be an occasion for the Roman Catholic Church to re-establish its political supremacy in Italy. Recent events seem to indicate that this is, indeed, happening, and. the Church has recently come out – with surprising clarity and energy – against the Berlusconi Government. This could be a direct consequence of what some have called the “Italian Spring”, referring to the remarkable “voters rebellion” in May of this year.
The long statement issued by the president of the Italian Bishops Conference (CEI), though never mentioning Mr. Berlusconi by name, was a clear and eloquent denunciation of the Prime Minister’s lifestyle as well as the Government’s inaction on issues of vital importance, The statement caused a considerable flurry, and few commentators gave any credit to the ruling party’s (and the public Television’s) version according to which the Bishops’ criticisms were levelled at “all political actors”.

Italy’s financial and economic situation, is extremely fragile and constantly worsening in spite of (or perhaps precisely because of) hasty and uncoordinated corrective measures steamrollered through Parliament by an already beleaguered Government. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister’s legal problems have been accumulating to the point of sending him scurrying around Europe to avoid confrontation with the Judicial system. His Government recently lost a crucial vote in Parliament and will have to seek a “vote of confidence” the outcome of which is far from secure.
All this has raised the question on whether the all too brief “Italian Spring”, which many thought would soon fall victim to a political situation which, in these past weeks has been visibly drifting from Italian comedy to Greek tragedy..

It is generally assumed, in Italy and abroad, that the Berlusconi government, as well as the political organization he created and its allies are in deep trouble and risk either losing their majority in Parliament or, at least, facing the next political elections (possibly in 2012, and at the latest in 2013) from a position of great disadvantage.
The natural corollary to this axiom should be that the main opposition parties of the Left and the Centre are rejoicing, planning for an early overthrow of the Government and already savouring the satisfaction of returning to power.
Both the axiom and its corollary, however, are flawed, and also the opposition, following last May’s events, is facing a growing credibility gap with the electorate. Uncritical acceptance of such truisms, therefore, can only end up distorting the view of the Italian crisis.
Some observers had ventured to suggest that, after these unexpected political events, so much more significant than many understood, the Roman Catholic Church, ever present in the Italian political scene, would probably be the first to step into the resulting political void.
This, indeed, seems to be happening although it must be understood that the Roman Catholic hierarchy always acts with measured calm and never with undue haste. The clarity and vehemence of the CEI’s statement are exceptional enough, but it would be a mistake to believe in an immediate follow-up.
This new development adds yet another skein to the already complex tissue of Italian politics, which, never easy to analyse, now appear permeated with even greater complexity. It also raises a rather paradoxical question in that the intervention of the Church, not exactly a model of liberal democracy, could actually end up saving the democratic structure of the Italian Republic from the risk of Italy's sliding into a form of “soft”, bourgeois neo-fascism. This danger appeared quite real some months back and has not yet totally subsided, now that this Government, with its virtual monopoly on the media, feels itself cornered and victim of internal and international “plots”. With all the real and urgent problems facing the country, the Government is currently pushing a Bill through Parliament which would significantly curtail freedom of the press. This law is exclusively designed to protect the Prime Minister from excessive media exposure, and has nothing to do with the ongoing financial, economic and political crisis.
One of the current majority’s rearguard actions consists in the issuance of dire warnings to the tone of “if not Berlusconi, who?”, implying that the Italian electorate is irretrievably “right wing”, and that, therefore, an electoral process taking place in an atmosphere of institutional crisis, could lead to the election of right-wing adventures and populists.
The Italian electorate, however, was not “right wing” in the past (it is enough to remember that for over four decades Italy hosted the largest European Communist Party outside of the Soviet Bloc) and cannot be defined as such now: the May events referred to above (massive anti-establishment vote at four referenda and mayoral elections in Milan and Naples) were inspired by the left and not the right.
Elections, whether held in 2012 or in 2013, certainly will be unpredictable, and the drift of political events in Italy over the next months will be interesting to observe. The only prediction that can safely be made is that the “Catholic” electorate will make its presence felt, perhaps even with the creation of a political party or organization of its own and that the Italian political scene, static for such a long time, will return to its dynamic traditions.

Carlo Ungaro

Published by “Open Democracy” – October 14 2011