AFGHANISTAN - THE ULTIMATE TRAGEDY

Cassandra, we are told, felt no joy at predicting calamities. Reality, in Afghanistan, is proving to be worse than the most pessimistic predictions, and this is not a motive of satisfaction for those who foretold disaster. The recent, concerted attacks on Kabul itself indicate that this disaster could be even closer than was thought. It was in the winter of 2006 that many objective observers, some of them, such as myself, in Afghanistan, realised that the tide was turning, and that ultimate military “victory” had eluded the present occupiers, just as, in the past, it had eluded others. Even as late as the summer of 2007, there could perhaps still have been room for successful negotiation with the Taleban, who had not as yet shown signs of having as strong and widespread an organization as they have now. The NATO allies, however, chose enhanced – and ultimately unsuccessful - military action, without enunciating a clear and credible set of realistic war aims apart from the destruction of the enemy. Now that no alternatives appear to a policy of more or less decorous withdrawal, the immensity of the tragedy brought upon Afghanistan finally comes to light and the real risk is leaving the Afghan people in a situation far worse than at the time of the invasion. It is an undeniable fact that a great number of Afghans, particularly but not exclusively women, were relieved at the apparent end of the Taleban regime which, greeted at first with approval, had really brought civil society to its knees, annulling the undeniable progress which had taken place in the waning years of the Monarchy, In the short life of the “Socialist Republic” and even, with due reservations, during the Soviet occupation. A great number of Afghans, therefore, for the most part motivated by a genuine feeling of hope, freely chose to cooperate with the invading forces, thus actively participating – especially in Kabul, in the North and in the West of the country – in the rebuilding of their society. It was heartening to see adult women taking advantage of the newly obtained freedom in order to compensate for the years of deprivation by resuming the process of education, as, indeed, was the sight of schoolgirls, smartly attired in their uniforms, marching off to classes from which they had been banned by the preceding regime. It was also pleasantly instructive, in the Autumn of 2005, to follow, as a Monitor, the regional elections, in a rather far away and isolated post to the west of the country, near the Iranian border. No western military presence was requested and none was needed, for the electoral process took place in an atmosphere of quiet determination, with a large turnout, both male and female. To ask what went wrong, or where did we miss the opportunity of preventing disaster is as fatuous a question as the “Who Lost China” question was in the U.S.A. of the fifties and sixties. It is far more useful to attempt to analyse whether any options are left to prevent a massive retaliation upon the departure of the last NATO troops, for which only belated and far from encouraging preparations are being made. Once the Taleban return to power, there will be a very large number of Afghans – primarily, but not only, women – who will be left to pay a heavy price for their “collaboration with the enemy”, and this seems an almost inevitable legacy left by the hurried, unwise and poorly planned invasion of 2001. The military mission in Afghanistan is well beyond recovery, and any last effort by the NATO forces must concentrate on the safety of the civilians left behind. The Soviet Union faced a similar problem when they left, and, for a time, were able to protect the Najibullah government by controlling the skies from neighbouring Central Asian bases: this protection came to a violent end with the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Civil war ensued. At this stage, negotiations with the Taleban appear even more futile than before, and any promises made by them will almost certainly be broken as soon as they regain full control of the country. The solution found by the Soviet Union would be difficult because there is no neighbouring haven from which the Taleban’s activities could be controlled. Leaving a “friendly” government – either Karzai or another political figure – in control would be a very short-lived solution, and it is difficult to predict a positive outcome of the inevitable NATO withdrawal. The alternative, bleak though it may seem, appears to be between a strong Taleban-controlled government, it is to be hoped more moderate than the preceding one, or a renewal of the civil war which followed the Soviet withdrawal and came to an uncertain end only with the Taleban takeover. Afghan civil society faces tremendous hardships: it is difficult to imagine, for example, what will become of the numerous female NGO’s created over these past years, and which have undertaken a tremendous task of rehabilitation and reconstruction. Nor is it easy to think of all those Afghan civilians – men and women – who have been working,, steadfastly and loyally – with the ISAF civilian-military organizations (Provincial Reconstruction Teams, or PRT’s) scattered around the country. Their future looks bleak indeed, and there is little left except hope. But hope, in itself, is not usually creative.

Scenarios for Italy’s political future: a resurgent role for the Roman Catholic Church

Rome, April 26, 2012 Italy’s current struggle to overcome a crisis of proportions unprecedented in the post-war decades has stimulated considerable comment in the international media. Few have noted, however, that the principal beneficiary of the current social and political turmoil could well turn out to be the Roman Catholic Church, ever present in the Italian political scene, and whose influence is certainly destined to grow. Over the centuries, the Church has played a relevant, often violently divisive role in the destinies of the Italian Peninsula. This role, relatively subdued in the first years of Italy’s independence and even during the Fascist regime, emerged with renewed vigour in the post war years taking full advantage of apprehensions aroused by Communist takeovers in many Central European Countries. As a result, Catholic political figures dominated the Italian scene for well over two decades after the end of the War.. The dramatic demise of what has been inaccurately called Italy’s “First Republic” took place in the nineteen nineties, as the end of the “Cold War” coincided with the upheaval caused by a growing number of vigorous investigations of corruption on the part of the leading political parties. The Catholic oriented “Christian Democratic” party, which had participated in all the post-war Governments, leading most of them, was particularly exposed and, as a result, it imploded and ceased to exist, causing an authentic “Diaspora” of its leading figures towards either ignominious retirement or the many newly formed political groupings. If this ensured the political survival of many Catholic leaders, it did, however, weaken the presence of the Church, which no longer had a single and reliable interlocutor in the Italian Parliament or Government. In reality, however, even before that, ever since the mid - Seventies , the influence of the Church in Italy had already been waning and had suffered setbacks unimaginable only a few years earlier, particularly the resounding defeats in popular referenda on the controversial issues of divorce and abortion. Since then, the Church has had to struggle hard – with the help of much of the Italian political establishment and also the public radio and television outlets – to regain the position of moral and political supremacy to which it feels entitled. Recent events have unexpectedly reversed the negative trend and appear set to pave the way for the Vatican’s resurgence as a leading player on the Italian political scene. In mid-Autumn of last year, the economic and financial situation in Italy appeared to be reeling out of control, and signs of incipient political unrest led many to fear the country was heading for disaster. Professor Mario Monti, a respected and well-known personality with no political affiliation was then asked to form a “technical” government, composed exclusively of unelected personalities, also seen as a-political. Attention has since been focussed on Italy’s unusual situation, and on Professor Monti’s numerous accomplishments and occasional setbacks, while the growing symptoms of the strong, steadily waxing resurgence of the Roman Catholic Church as a political actor has gone virtually unnoticed. It is worth recalling that, with the appearance and electoral triumph of the populist Silvio Berlusconi in 1994, the Church had found itself in a quandary, and had reluctantly opted for support of Berlusconi – in spite of his rather sketchy claims to Catholic orthodoxy – in exchange for a growing number of legislative and monetary benefits. This rather cynical attitude – a form of “real-politick” not new to the Vatican – in the long run risked alienating the support of grass-roots Catholics, who grew restive at the apparent acquiescence of the Church and the Italian Bishops Conference at behaviour patterns which appeared to grow ever more blatant and unacceptable in the course of time. In the month of May of last year, Mr Berlusconi's party - along with practically all the other mainstream political parties – suffered unexpected and undeniable debacles both in local elections (Milan and Naples) and in the massive turnout of the Italian electorate at referenda which the Government had openly opposed. The disaster suffered by Berlusconi quite evidently persuaded the Church to modify its position, and it is interesting to notice how the lack of support from the Church ultimately brought about Mr. Berlusconi’s downfall, with key members of his party abandoning ship and drifting towards the political centre. Meanwhile, the persistent popular approval of the staunchly Catholic Professor Monti seemed to indicate the way forward, and to open the way for a Centrist gathering of political leaders whose positions are close to those preferred by the Church and the Bishops’ Conference. There is, at present, much confusion and uncertainty in Italy, particularly among the established political parties, which now seem to have reached an all-time low in the approval rating by the country’s electorate (apparently under 10%). This condition, somewhat astounding in the land which coined the expression “Partitocrazia”, has induced leading Catholic political figures, on the right and on the left, to converge towards the centre, thus ensuring a more dynamic, integrated and efficient presence of the Church on the political scene. In spite of the apparent calm, and the seemingly hapless bluster of the discredited political parties, Italy’s traditional volatility still endures and it is therefore difficult clearly to envisage future trends. It is improbable, however, that either Professor Monti or most of his government colleagues will be tempted to undertake a political career, even though present polls would encourage them in this prospect, and it therefore seems that, in 2013 (or, perhaps, earlier), the Italian electorate will be called upon to choose among the existing political parties and politicians. A new, openly “Christian” formation could well upset the balance and bring the Church back to the centre of Italian political life. Surprisingly, this process, which until recently seemed a relatively distant prospect, has already begun, even before the rather crucial local elections scheduled for the month of May. The leading, and highly influential, Catholic dominated centrist party (the “U.D.C.”, led by a darkly handsome political opportunist, Ferdinando Casini – one of the few capable politicians left in Italy) has announced its dissolution and an imminent change of name: a considerable group of Catholic Parliamentarians belonging to Berlusconi’s majority party have already publicly shown interest, while the other, minor, centrist groups seem to have been caught off balance and face little alternative to joining the new formation. This development, coupled with the existential crisis which has greatly weakened the xenophobic, even at times racist, Northern League has enhanced the political parties’ self confidence, and there are growing and persistent rumours of early elections, with the month of October set as a possible date. Whenever the next elections are held – they will be mandatory in the Spring of 2013 – this new formation will surely play a leading role, finally returning the Roman Catholic Church as a principal player on the Italian political scene. In the broader, international context, this will mean that Italy would even further distance itself from the growingly secular attitudes of most other European Union Countries, while much of the social progress, limited and slow as it may have been, achieved in the past decades will be the object of open attempts at abolition or, at least, revision. The prospect, endorsed by president Napolitano, of having a woman as the next Head of State would also drift further into the future since both of the two leading prospective female candidates are vehemently opposed by the Catholic Hierarchy. Grim as this prospect may appear, it would certainly be a development preferable to the opportunity which the existing political void could give to unscrupulous populist movements, aiming to prey upon the voters’ insecurity and anger.