Italian
elections: And the Winner is …….
As many had
foreseen, the results of last Sunday’s regional elections in Italy appear to
indicate a period of renewed, accentuated and totally irrational turmoil,
perhaps even terminating with yet another Government crisis and the call for
early elections.
Thanks to
extremely complex electoral laws and to the ease with which alliances and
coalitions are created and broken, as is usual in Italy all sides claim victory, and
it is not easy to perceive reality through the
smokescreen of triumphant statements.
At times,
on the surface, the victory claims appear plausible: the ruling Democratic
Party, led by the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, has, after all, succeeded in
securing five out of the seven contested
regions, Silvio Berlusconi, generally considered a spent force in Italian
politics, can boast of the fact that his party’s candidate won the elections in
Liguria, traditionally a stronghold of the Left, while Grillo’s “Five Stars”
movement has retained its position as Italy’s second largest political force
and the Northern League, led by the wily, capable, Matteo Salvini has confirmed
its surging presence and become the undisputed leader of the country’s
right-wing electorate.
All but one
of these claims, however, fail to stand up to a more in-depth analysis, and it
is particularly interesting to note how
badly Renzi’s Democratic Party has fared in spite of its apparent success.
The party’s
loss in the Veneto
region, traditionally a secure stronghold of the Northern League, was expected,
but the Democratic Party, in spite of Renzi’s outspoken support for it’s
candidate, suffered an unprecedented debacle, gathering the lowest percentage ever obtained by a
left-wing party (including the Communists) in the history of the Republic.
The most
humiliating and meaningful defeat, however, came in Liguria , traditionally a left-wing region,
on which Renzi himself expended much
energy in the course of the electoral campaign. The Renzi supporters were quick to lay the blame for the disaster on the left wing
of the Party, which ran a candidate of its own, obtaining a respectable
percentage even though it was lower than what they had expected. The rift in
the Democratic party, however, is not confined to Genova and Liguria , and is certainly a phenomenon to which Renzi – especially now
in an apparently weakened position – should pay the greatest attention, before
it spreads to national level. In Liguria it was, in fact, the arrogant attitude of the mainstream party which was to blame, with the
insistent support of an unpopular candidate whose name was produced through
primaries the legitimacy of which were hotly contested. To add insult to
injury, the Democratic fiasco gave Berlusconi’s struggling “Forza Italia” its
only winning candidate in the contest, but
more about this subject later.
But also in the “winning” regions, the Democratic
Party faced - and will continue to face – severe obstacles,
especially in Campania, where official support was given to the winning
candidate in spite of his having been placed on a “black list” by Parliament’s
own anti-Mafia commission, presided, among other things, by one of the leading
political figures in the Party itself (Ms. Rosi Bindi). According to current
Italian legislation, the winner, because of being a convicted criminal, will
not be allowed to take up his position as Governor, and this will certainly add
to Mr. Renzi’s embarrassment.
Also in the
remaining Southern region, Puglia ,
the winner, locally popular, was not openly supported by Renzi and claims that,
after his victory he did not receive the expected congratulatory telegram or telephone call
from the Prime Minister.
The
remaining three regions were widely
expected to remain firmly in Democratic
hands, and so scarcely constitute a triumph for the party. It has to be added that the party has
experienced a dramatic drop in overall support, losing about ten percentage
points and about two million voters from the unprecedented 41% triumph of last
year’s European elections. This is a
severe blow to Renzi’s stated ambition of forming a “National Party”, which
would include rival factions and remain a dominant fixture in Italian politics.
As the
venerable Italian proverb states: “Though Athens weeps, Sparta is not
laughing”, and another of the self-proclaimed “winners”, Silvio Berlusconi’s
one dominating Forza Italia, emerges severely, perhaps irremediably damaged,
and this electoral experience could really signal the end of Berlusconi’s
career as an active and influential political figure. The Berlusconi owned
Media, of course, point out the party’s
victory in the hitherto hostile region of Liguria where one of a disappearing breed of
loyal party faithful was elected Governor. This is certainly true, but while
the victorious candidate bears, as it were, the “Forza Italia” label, his
election is mainly due to the support of the Northern League and of other minor
right-wing parties. Elsewhere, and on a national level, the party has
experienced the most disastrous results in its history.
As for the
“Five Stars” movement, it has to be said that its claims of “victory” are
partly justified, first of all because it remains the country’ second political
party, and also because it has recuperated some of the great numeric losses
incurred after the 2013 elections.
The
results, however, were not as successful
as some of the supporters had predicted, and there are limited reasons to
celebrate.
It is worth
noting that, in the course of this campaign, the Movement went through a
drastic change in style, eschewing the rough, sometimes obscene language used
in the past and appearing on some of the
main Television political talk shows, the men uncharacteristically dressed in
dark suits and neckties, to the point of being compared to Jehovah's Witnesses. The appearances of its
flamboyant founder and leader, former comedian Beppe Grillo were cut to an
absolute minimum, and this caused speculation as to whether the Movement was
experiencing a leadership crisis.
Only one of
the exuberant victory claims appears
fully justified, for the Northern League has definitely taken over the
leadership of Italy ’s
political Right, and will certainly be a force to be reckoned with in the
future. This causes some concern because of the League’s strident xenophobic and anti-European stances, and
there is a real danger that their success will condition the Government’s more
traditional pro-European and more tolerant immigration policies, especially
since also the powerful Five Stars Movement – though certainly not a political ally of the League – is basically
critical of the European Union and resistant to
the massive inflow of migrants through the Mediterranean.
A pessimist
view of the recent election could point out another winner: the abstention rate
which has now reached unprecedented
levels with voter turnout seldom above 50%, and this in country which, until
recently boasted of voter turnouts much closer to 80%.
It is too
early to assess to what extent these results will condition the ruling party’s
and, of course, the Prime Minister’s
prestige and decision making
power, but it appears undeniable that great changes should be expected, which
could eventually influence Italy ’s
role within the EU leadership.
Carlo
Ungaro